If voting for the National League Cy Young Award were held right now, it wouldn’t be close. It shouldn’t be. Despite a loaded field, 24-year-old right-hander is the best of the best. Through four months of our six-month season, he’s the NL Cy Young winner.
In looking ahead to the end of the season, though, this is far from a done deal. I believe the door is open for others. Will anyone storm through said door?
Let’s dive in.
First off, we should discuss the rationale for why I believe the door is open. Misiorowski has thrown just four innings since July 7 and that’s our jumping off point. Between the minors, majors, and playoffs last season, Misiorowski worked 161 ⅓ innings, which was a jump from 97 ⅓ in 2024. He’s at 115 so far this season. Keep in mind, the Brewers (64-38) are one of the best teams in baseball — and have been for years — but haven’t been to the World Series since 1982 when they were an AL team.
This is the long way of saying the Brewers are going to want to conserve Misiorowski’s workload the next two months in anticipation of extending him deep into October as a legitimate ace. More specific: They envision him going seven-plus innings in Game 7 of the World Series.
I’m not necessarily suggesting that his arm fatigue this month has been fake or anything like that, but every single pitcher has a tired arm at this point in the season. The Brewers will, wisely, use any excuse to protect their 6-foot-7 ace the next several weeks.
And that’s where there’s an opening in the Cy Young market.
The most recent Brewers Cy Young winner was in 2021. He threw 167 innings, and that’s about as low as it gets when it comes to starting pitcher workload for a Cy Young winner. In fact, that’s the lowest ever for a starter winning a Cy Young in a full season.
The NL field this season is far stronger than 2021, too. Let’s take a closer look, with odds via .
Through July 7, he was on an all-time great pace. Overall, he’s 10-4 with a 1.57 ERA (270 ERA+!), 0.77 WHIP and 173 strikeouts against 28 walks in 115 innings. The eye test is there, too. When you watch him, you’re in awe. He’s been the best pitcher in baseball this season and I’m not sure it’s particularly close.
Again, though, the Brewers appear to be monitoring his workload.
There’s a reason he’s the favorite, but at these odds, he’s a bad bet right now.
If you want a big-ticket item, Sánchez had the fifth-longest scoreless innings streak in history earlier this season at 50 ⅔. Overall, he’s 12-4 with a 2.71 ERA and 151 strikeouts in 132 ⅔ innings. The workload won’t be a problem, as he went over 200 innings last season and threw 12 more in the playoffs. He leads the field here in WAR at 5.4.
What a story this would be. Wheeler was the best pitcher in baseball without a Cy Young once won in 2024, but then had the blood clot shut him down late last season and the offseason thoracic outlet syndrome surgery meant a late start this year. All Wheeler has done in his 16 starts is go 10-2 with a 2.16 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 117 strikeouts against 22 walks in 100 innings. Should he and Misiorowski lap the field on a rate-stat basis, it’ll be interesting to see where their respective workloads end up. He’s second to his teammate, Sánchez, in WAR at 5.1.
The way things are shaping up, he’s the best bet, in my opinion.
The 2024 winner continues his exceptional second act at age 37. He’s 11-6 with a 2.19 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 134 strikeouts in 111 innings. Workload isn’t a concern here.
He’s third in WAR behind the two aces and is 12-1 on a subpar team. With a 2.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, he’s great on a rate basis, too. Burns, though, is like Misiorowski in that I believe his team is going to hold back his innings. Between the minors, majors and playoffs last season, he worked 111 innings. And so far this year, he’s thrown 107 ⅔ innings.
He’s 10-6 with a 2.78 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 113 strikeouts in 119 ⅔ innings. The workload shouldn’t be a major concern, but keep in mind the are planning on playing through the World Series again.
