Things have, broadly speaking, been going swimmingly for the since the firing of erstwhile manager Rob Thomson and the decision to replace him with Don Mattingly on an interim basis. The term “broadly” is relevant here because, despite improving fortunes, the Phillies still have roster concerns.
The leading one at the moment might be rookie starting pitcher . Consider:
Following a loss to the on Saturday, in which Painter took the loss after allowing six runs on eight hits in 4 ⅔ innings, Mattingly was asked whether the Phillies would consider skipping Painter’s next turn in the rotation in order to allow a reset or perhaps ponder other options. Via , Mattingly said:
“Not really. I think the situation we’re in with our starters, we don’t sit here with four or five guys in Triple-A that you can bring up at any time and fill in a spot. We want to make sure we take care of all our starters with those off-days.”
Therein lies the dilemma for the Phillies — a 23-year-old starter who, despite elite prospect status, is struggling to transition to the highest level, paired with a lack of contingency options to replace him, even for a handful of starts. The situation with Painter and that implied lack of depth becomes even more of a concern once you consider that Sunday’s starter, , has a 5.55 ERA on the season and a 5.83 mark since the start of last season.
For now, though, young Painter is the more acute concern, and his and the Phillies’ straits bear further exploration.
You see the above numbers, and they’re ugly enough. He’s allowed 11 home runs in 58 innings, and he’s struck out just 18.0% of opposing batters, particularly weak in the current high-K environment. If you look at Painter’s FIP, or fielding independent pitching, which measures his deserved ERA after stripping away the effects of defense and luck, you’ll find a figure of 5.09. That’s better than his actual ERA, yes, but it means the underlying fundamentals also don’t inspire much confidence. Painter’s averaging less than five innings per start and, because he’s young with a Tommy John surgery in his recent past, they’re not going to get length out of him by pushing his pitch count.
At a stuff level, he has a deep repertoire fronted by a fastball that averages 96.2 mph — a strong figure, especially for a starter. However, that fastball doesn’t have great shape or movement, and Painter’s modest extension off the mound doesn’t really help it play up. It’s a pitch he throws a third of the time, but he gets just a 9.9% whiff rate on it. You need more of a capacity to miss bats with your lead offering, especially when, like Painter, you’re prone to allowing balls to be hit in the air. To bottom-line it, opposing batters this season are slugging .585 against Painter’s vaunted fastball with an expected SLG of .559. “Just hard to command the ball with that pitch when I don’t really know what the pitch is going to do,” Painter said of his fastball after Saturday’s outing.
This looks and smells like a pitch — and a pitcher — that needs time back in the minors or at least time in the lab and away from the rotation for a while. Again, though, the Phillies aren’t well-positioned to do that.
Mattingly’s previously discussed quote is direct and illustrative of the problem. The viable rotation options presently stationed at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, the top rung of the Phillies’ minor-league system, have combined for an ERA of 5.04 in 40 total starts spread out over 184 innings. The average age of those starters is 29, and, unsurprisingly, none of them are on any list of the Phillies’ top 30 prospects. The 23-year-old Moisés Chace would normally be a consideration, but he’s still recovering from 2025 Tommy John surgery (and may not have a future as a starter anyway).
, the 28-year-old right-hander, may be the closest thing to a fallback option for the Phillies. He’s already on the 40-man roster, and he’s pitched to a 3.17 ERA and 3.40 FIP in nine starts for the IronPigs. He made a three-inning relief appearance for the Phillies in April and fared well. He’s fastball-heavy despite averaging a modest 92.9 mph with his four-seamer, with a four-pitch repertoire. If there’s an avenue for skipping a Painter start or even optioning him back to Triple-A — and, again, the Phillies don’t seem to be considering such a thing — then Rangel may be their only current viable option to replace him, at least from within.
It’s fair to wonder whether this lack of depth played into the decision to start Painter off in Philly this season. Painter is a former No. 13 overall draft pick who was regarded as an elite prospect by pretty much all evaluators. However, in 22 starts for Lehigh Valley last season, he put up an ERA of 5.65 with a K% of 23.4. That’s hardly a body of work that cries out for breaking camp with the big-league club. That aggressive promotion, which, again, has gone poorly, may have been on some level an act of desperation.
The backdrop to all of this is that the Phillies are back in contention. Since their low point on April 26, when they slipped to 10 games over .500, the Phils have gone 25-11. That puts them a mere half-game behind the for the best record in baseball over that span. That stretch — all under Mattingly — has put the Phillies in second wild-card position in the National League, albeit without much margin for error. They’ve done all this despite an overall run differential of -23, which raises serious concerns about the team’s ability to maintain their winning mark moving forward.
If anything, the current relevance in the standings — SportsLine gives them a very workable 44.2% chance of making the playoffs — and that grim run differential raises the urgency to improve roster contributions where they can. One would think that would lead the Phillies by the hand to the decision to give Painter a developmental break from facing the best hitters in the world, all in the service of not only his best long-term interests but also the Phillies’ tenuous grasp on contention. That, though, doesn’t appear to be the plan, as the club has determined that even a struggling 23-year-old who’s never succeeded above the Double-A level is their best option for now.
