Which players, teams and storylines will dominate the NBA offseason?
The next step in the saga between and the is high on the list. So is the future of the ‘ roster, which features major free agent decisions for and . Leaguewide, plenty of franchises will face decisions that could alter the NBA’s hierarchy.
We’re breaking down the 10 most important questions of the summer, including superstars at a crossroads, top free agent and trade targets, and why June’s draft is so important for a handful of lottery-bound teams.
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The answer could depend on which direction the Bucks take this summer.
“I want to win a championship with the Milwaukee Bucks,” Antetokounmpo . “And if that is not on the table, maybe I have to pivot because I really want to win.”
Headed to the lottery for the first time since 2016, the Bucks will add a valuable 2026 draft pick to their list of tradable resources. Milwaukee can also trade first-rounders in 2031 and 2033 and can swap picks in 2031, 2032 and 2033. Persuading Antetokounmpo to sign an extension in the fall could depend on where June’s pick lands and whether the franchise plans to use those picks in a deal.
Improving via free agency could prove more difficult. Milwaukee has nine free agents this summer, five with player options (., ., , and ). The Bucks are also projected to be over the cap this offseason, thanks in part to signing center last offseason and owing $20.2 million per season through 2029-30 after waiving and stretching his contract.
Outside of using Turner’s, ‘s or ‘ contracts in a trade, Milwaukee will have the $15.1 million non-taxpayer midlevel, $5.5 million biannual and veteran minimum exceptions available to sign players.
The Bucks explored trades for Antetokounmpo before the deadline and will likely do so again if there is an indication he is not committed long term. The market for Antetokounmpo should expand this summer for several reasons.
Teams that were limited in tradable draft picks at the deadline will have more selections available starting the night of the draft. The Lakers, for example, will see their tradable first-rounders increase from one to three. The will have up to four firsts to trade instead of two at the deadline. The will go from zero to two.
More importantly, there is always a sense of urgency from the front office when a team loses early in the playoffs. The and were eliminated in the first round last season, then traded for and , respectively. Would the Knicks or the choose to go all-in for Antetokounmpo if they suffer similar playoff fates?
Other reasons we could see a Giannis trade this summer:
Players who signed rookie extensions, such as the Magic’s and the Rockets’ ., will no longer have a position restriction in their contract. A total of nine players will see the restriction removed starting July 1.
Teams will be allowed to send out or receive more contracts than during the regular season. Offseason roster sizes will expand from 15 to 21.
Teams will have more financial flexibility, as the first and second apron levels are projected to increase by 7.3%.
LeBron James says he just wants to live and doesn’t know if he’ll play for a 24th season.
Last week, after he became the oldest player to record a triple-double, 41-year-old James discussed one major factor that could determine how long the NBA’s leading career scorer stays in the league.
“My game is not going anywhere. It’s just my body,” James told reporters after the Lakers’ win over the before the All-Star break. “[But] how long can I stay in love with the process?
“Because that’s always been my thing. If I can’t continue to stay in love with the process, then if [my mental commitment] goes, then my body’s going to go. And once my body goes, then it’s a wrap.”
Remarkably, James, who has averaged at least 33 minutes and 20 points in every season of his career, is on pace to add a 23rd consecutive year to the list.
James’ options for a 24th season? This offseason, the pending free agent can:
Return to the Lakers
Sign with a contender
Retire
Re-signing with Los Angeles would come with a significant pay cut from his current $52.6 million. But, few contenders are projected to have cap space this summer. For example, it’s likely that the Cavaliers, and Knicks could offer LeBron only the veteran’s minimum exception.
Since trading for Doncic in February 2025, the Lakers have been operating under two timelines: LeBron’s and Luka’s.
“Having optionality now is really a positive thing for us this coming offseason,” president of basketball operations Rob Pelinka said after this season’s Feb. 5 trade deadline.
This offseason, the franchise’s top priority is re-signing Austin Reaves, who will likely decline his $14.9 million player option for 2026-27 to pursue a long-term extension.
Before injuring his left calf on Christmas, Reaves was averaging a career-high 26.6 points and shooting better than 50% from the field. (In five games since returning, Reaves has averaged 20.0 points on just 25.4 minutes.) “I’ve said it a million times. I want to be in L.A. I love it,” .
“Even though the other extension was turned down, that doesn’t mean that I’m trying to go get a f—ing gigantic number that doesn’t make sense. I want to be here; I want to win.”
The Lakers, and are among the teams with enough spending power to sign Reaves to a lucrative contract. But as the Bucks showed when they waived and stretched Lillard’s contract last season, teams without cap space have methods to manufacture cap space.
Because of Reaves’ $20.9 million free agent hold, the Lakers could have up to $50 million in cap space this summer, the most of any team. To create that room, however, Los Angeles would need to renounce every free agent on the roster — including LeBron.
and .
In Watson’s case, Denver failing to reach an extension before the season could be costly.
“With the new CBA and the second apron, things of that nature, [the Nuggets] wanted to stay out of that,” . “As a business, you’ve gotta operate [based on] what’s best for your business. And when it comes time for me to make my decision next summer, I’ve gotta operate as a business myself.”
Watson is a restricted free agent this offseason, allowing Denver to match any offer sheet. The Nuggets are projected to be $3.6 million below the second apron next season.
Watson, named a Western Conference Player of the Week in January, is averaging career highs in points and shooting efficiency this season. And in 39 starts, he is averaging 17.5 points with a 50.4 field goal percentage and 41.7% shooting from 3.
Gillespie, meanwhile, has outplayed the one-year, $2.3 million contract he signed with the Suns.
He scored a career-high 30 points in a Feb. 3 win against the and has at least six assists in 16 games this season. The Suns are plus-4.8 points per 100 possessions when Gillespie is on the floor, according to Cleaning the Glass.
Gillespie is eligible to sign a four-year, $66.6 million contract with Phoenix. Because he has early Bird rights, the contract must be a minimum of two seasons (not including an option).
As for the rest of the free agent class, here are the top names to watch:
All-Star level: LeBron James, (restricted), Austin Reaves, (player option)
Top starter level: (player option), (team option), (player option), (restricted),
Starter level: Peyton Watson (restricted) (team option), Collin Gillespie, (player), , , , , (restricted), , , Kevin Porter Jr., (player option), (team option), (restricted), , , (player option), , (player option), (player option) and (restricted)
Brian Windhorst chimes in on accusations that the Utah Jazz have been “tanking” late in games and says they’re not the only franchise doing it.
We’ve closely documented the 2026 draft class for some time, with a historically strong group of college freshmen creating one of the deepest lottery groups in recent memory. , and have long been headliners. Fellow freshmen , , , , . and . currently round out our top nine.
The trade deadline amplified the stakes for teams such as the Jazz, and , who might flirt with fate on lottery night due to the protections on their first-round selections. The reason for those teams to lose games is obvious: maximize their chances of keeping their picks.
The subtext behind this exciting draft is that NBA teams haven’t been as bullish on the 2027 and 2028 draft classes, as they continue to scour for talent domestically and internationally. It’s far too early to treat that as conclusive, but those drafts appear short on archetypal star power. It’s no coincidence that long-mired teams such as Washington and Utah are positioned to take a step forward next season. There is simply less incentive to lose games in 2026-27.
That perception places even more weight on the 2026 lottery, where this top group of players represents many teams’ clearest chance at a franchise-altering talent. — Jeremy Woo
Analyzing what happens next for Antetokounmpo and James gives us the obvious storylines to watch this offseason. But players eligible to sign veteran extensions will play a larger role, not just this summer but in the 2026-27 trade landscape.
Starting the day after the Finals, a who’s who of All-Stars will become eligible to sign extensions:
, , , Draymond Green, Trae Young, , , , , , and . Jokic bypassed signing a three-year extension last summer for financial reasons, not because he was unhappy with the direction Denver was headed with its roster. A year later, he can extend up to four more seasons starting in 2027-28.
In addition to Jokic, (July 7), (July 8), (July 26), (Aug. 6) and (Aug. 29) become extension-eligible at some point in the offseason. (Because of the over-38 rule, Curry and Leonard can extend for two additional seasons.)
There will be little negotiating on Wembanyama’s next contract.
On or after July 6, San Antonio and its franchise star will agree to a projected five-year, $252 million maximum extension. The contract will include All-NBA, Defensive Player of the Year and MVP language, which could increase the deal to $303.3 million if he reaches the criteria in 2026-27. Because Wembanyama was ineligible for league honors in 2024-25, he is not eligible for 30% of the salary cap in Year 1 of the extension — even if the criteria are reached this season.
Close to 200 miles from San Antonio, the Rockets’ could join Wembanyama as the second player to sign a rookie max extension this summer. Thompson is averaging a career high in points, assists and field goal percentage, and the Rockets are five points better per 100 possessions when Thompson is on the court.
Other notable extension candidates include , , , and .
Shams Charania breaks the news that the Warriors are trading Jonathan Kuminga and Buddy Hield to the Hawks in exchange for Kristaps Porzingis.
Two days after the trade deadline, general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. made it clear Golden State had the resources to improve in the summer. “We’ve got the goods to make deals,” he said.
“I think the only way we wouldn’t be in the mix is if we gave out assets, young players, all the things you need to get a great player. We still have all that. I think that’s one of the reasons the [] trade is really good for us, similar to ] last year. We don’t feel like we gave up a ton. We still have the kind of firepower to move forward and do more deals.”
Dunleavy is referring to the Warriors’ four first-round picks and the right to swap picks in the next seven years. (They owe Dallas their 2030 first-rounder, but only if it falls outside of the top 20.)
What could hinder the Warriors in any trade talks are the contracts available to use in deals. While Golden State is well below the apron to absorb salary, its three highest-paid players are either untouchable (Curry), injured (Butler) or potentially a free agent — Green has a $27.7 million player option for 2026-27.
The Warriors do have $18 million in salary of former first-round picks and Podziemski. Porzingis could also be flipped in a sign-and-trade if he approves.
We could see a domino effect of extension-eligible players in trade discussions this summer.
For example, will the Clippers continue their youth movement and explore trades for All-Star Kawhi Leonard? In two separate trades before the deadline, LA acquired former lottery picks , , and two first-round picks.
“We were just trying to get younger,” Leonard said after the trade deadline. We came in the year with the oldest team. It makes sense for them to try to get some assets and try to build for the future. It’s a big class coming in 2027, hopefully. They gotta do what’s best for them.”
Leonard, 34, will earn $50.3 million next season, his last year under contract with the Clippers.
Whether the Knicks find postseason success could play a role in roster decisions this summer. The Knicks will enter the offseason as a potential second apron team if they re-sign center Mitchell Robinson and have four players under contract earning more than $33.5 million next season, including Karl-Anthony Towns. The All-Star big man is eligible to sign up to a four-year, $275 million extension and has a $61 million player option for 2027-28.
Ja Morant and the are worth watching. As ESPN’s Shams Charania reported in early January, the Grizzlies were gauging the market for a new home for their once franchise player. Morant has two years remaining on his contract ($42.2 million and $44.9 million).
Since June, Memphis has traded Desmond Bane and ., deals that have netted the franchise seven future first-round picks.
Extensions for and project the Thunder to be $24 million over the second apron next season. But unlike other high-spending teams that dismantled their rosters because of the stringent restrictions, OKC can keep its core intact.
The Thunder will not pay a luxury tax penalty for a sixth consecutive season despite having the highest winning percentage of teams since 2023-24.
The apron restrictions work to take away the tools a front office has to improve the roster in free agency and trades. The Thunder have all 15 players under contract in 2026-27.
Unlike other high-spending teams, Oklahoma City has a surplus of 13 first-round picks and 15 second-rounders over the next seven years. The Thunder could have up to three first-rounders in June from the Clippers, the (if Nos. 5-30) and the (if 9-30). In addition, they have the right to swap first-rounders with the Clippers in 2027 and with the Mavericks in 2028.
The Thunder can also offset the cost of the roster with players on rookie contracts. Three examples are , and , first-round picks over the past two seasons.
Most importantly, the Thunder have staggered their contracts for the next five seasons. While the Williams and Holmgren extensions start next season, ‘s new deal does not begin until 2027-28. Over the past two seasons, the Thunder have signed Isaiah Hartenstein, , , and to contracts that either decline, have a team option or are partially guaranteed.
OKC does face a few decisions on its supporting cast. Hartenstein, Lu Dort and have team options next season, while Dort, Williams and Cason Wallace are extension-eligible this summer.
