If the 2025 NBA offseason resembles this season’s trade deadline, then there will be no shortage of storylines.
Earlier this season, in a one-week period leading into Feb. 6, All-Stars , , and were all traded. Now, the focus turns to big man , forward and a number of stars with uncertain futures.
The Bucks and Suns are among the 10 teams we’re watching closely this summer — a list that also includes the 2024 champion — that could change the landscape of the offseason.
Jump to a team:
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“The CBA has been well known for years. So there are penalties associated with being at certain levels, and we know that. You just weigh that. You weigh where we are. You weigh everything else, then you make those decisions.”
— Brad Stevens, May 2025
Stevens, the Celtics’ president of basketball operations, is well aware of their $500 million projected payroll and the roster restrictions that come with being over the salary cap’s second apron.
However, unlike last season, when winning an NBA championship justified its high payroll, Boston’s roster is under the microscope after losing in the second round of the playoffs, during which superstar tore his Achilles.
The Celtics are $23 million over the second apron, and unless the are willing to absorb the $30.7 million expiring contract of center , there is no direct path to getting under it with one singular trade. Shedding salary will likely happen in multiple moves.
Considering that Tatum, and are under contract through at least the 2028-29 season, Boston has to balance cutting costs with its championship goals.
Boston’s roster restrictions if it remains over the second apron include the inability to:
Aggregate contracts sent out in a trade
Use more than 100% of the traded player exception
Send out cash
Use a preexisting trade exception
Sign a waived player with a salary of at least $14.1 million
The Celtics’ 2033 first-round pick will become frozen (their 2032 pick is already) if they finish the 2025-26 over the second apron.
“If you’re going after max-level talent, they have to automatically and absolutely change the trajectory of your team. This can’t be like let’s go get this [guy] and lock ourselves into being a 6-7 seed. When we go all-in, you’re going in to compete at the highest level and contend.”
— Sean Marks, April 2025
The Nets have two things no other team has this offseason: four first-round picks in June and more than $40 million in cap space.
However, unlike the 2019 offseason when Durant and signed as free agents, the current roster is not championship ready, even with the addition of an All-NBA player.
Therefore, Brooklyn is a candidate to sign free agents to bloated contracts (similar to what the did with in 2023), take back salary in exchange for draft picks and target restricted free agents with an offer sheet.
Brooklyn is not allowed to use most of its available cap space in the regular season. Teams have to spend 90% of the salary cap by the first day of the regular season. Including its four firsts, Brooklyn has $79 million in salary and will need to spend an additional $60 million.
“We definitely need to figure out a way to get more depth. It seems like the teams that have longer rotations, the longer benches, are the ones who are winning. Indiana, OKC, Minnesota.”
— , May 2025
Comments from the three-time MVP did not catch Nuggets president Josh Kroenke off guard. “I heard Jokic’s comments loud and clear. I mean, I think that I was thinking that before those words came out of his mouth,” he said last month.
Jokic has three years left on his contract, and there’s a sense of urgency to improve the roster, specifically the bench. The Nuggets’ starters averaged 94.4 points in the regular season, the most by any team since the 1986-87 season, per ESPN Research.
The Nuggets have three options to strengthen their depth.
Develop former draft picks , , , and DaRon Holmes into consistent rotational players.
Via trades. Because Denver has one first-round pick in 2031 or 2032 available, its lone tangible asset is . The forward averaged a career-high 18.2 points this season and is owed $38.3 and $40.8 million, respectively, in the next two seasons. Denver also has the combined $13.5 million in salary of and . Because Denver is projected to be a first apron team, it’s not allowed to take back salary in a trade.
Via free agency. This path seems unlikely as the Nuggets are top heavy with the salaries of Jokic, , Porter and comprising 82% of their total payroll. Plus, the first year of Murray’s extension puts Denver over the first apron again. Unless a trade materializes to clear out salary, Denver has only the veterans minimum exception available.
“We’re good at giving up whatever it takes. It just depends on how good we think that will make our team. I think the only issue with mortgaging the future is you just don’t want to get caught. I don’t want to get caught in a situation where we give up a ton, put all our chips in, and then 10 games into the season, we have a catastrophic injury, there’s nowhere to go and then we’re stuck for four or five years.”
— Mike Dunleavy Jr., May 2025
Golden State general manager Dunleavy has the draft assets to go all-in.
The Warriors are allowed to trade up to four first-round picks starting the night of the draft: 2026, 2028, 2030 (if 1-20) and 2032. They also have the right to swap firsts in the next seven years if their 2030 pick is in the top 20.
But the issue will be whether the Warriors can put together a salary package that is substantial enough for a trade without including or . Curry, Butler and Green comprise 85% of Golden State’s payroll. The remaining six players under contract will earn a total of $30 million next season. The salary constraints are why plays a critical part in the Warriors’ offseason.
The Warriors are expected to tender him a $7.9 million one-year qualifying offer, making him a restricted free agent. With Brooklyn as the only team to offer a starting salary of $20 million or more (Golden State would have the right to match), the best option could be exploring a sign-and-trade.
There are two challenges in a sign-and-trade besides Kuminga having to sign at least a three-year contract with the first season guaranteed. First, only 50% of Kuminga’s outgoing salary is used in a trade, not the full amount. (For example, if the salary in the first year is $30 million, $15 million counts as outgoing salary and $30 million is incoming for the acquiring team.)
Golden State is also $25 million below the first apron. It would not be allowed to trade for a player earning more than that amount unless additional salary is included.
“I think continuity for continuity’s sake isn’t what we’re trying to achieve. Continuity is great, but the goal ultimately is to build a championship team. And if we think that there’s a move or a series of moves that make it more likely we will be that then, then we would ignore continuity, and we do those moves.”
— Rafael Stone (via Houston Chronicle)
If the Rockets’ GM is willing to forsake continuity to acquire an All-NBA player, then expect them to be aggressive this offseason.
Houston checks the three most important boxes to acquire a superstar:
Draft equity: Houston has five tradeable firsts in the next seven years, including the 10th pick in this year’s draft and unprotected firsts in 2027 (Phoenix) and 2029 (Phoenix or Dallas). The Rockets can also trade first-round picks in 2028, 2030 and 2032.
Controllable contracts: The Rockets have five players — ., , , and — on first-round rookie contracts.
Sizable contracts: and signed rookie extensions last October. The poison pill restriction in their contracts gets lifted July 1, making them trade eligible. Both players are set to earn $33 million next season. Brooks has two years left on his contract ($22.1 million and $20.9 million).
The Rockets also have until June 29 to exercise ‘s $44.9 million team option. Houston’s decision on VanVleet will play an important role in its financial flexibility in trades and retaining free agent .
The Rockets were at their best in their first-round series against Golden State when Adams was paired with Sengun. When both players were on the court this postseason, Houston was a plus-30.7 points per 100 possessions compared to plus-30 in the regular season.
Houston is right at the first apron when including the team options of VanVleet, and non-guaranteed contract of .
“I think when you make a huge trade at the deadline where you trade your starting center for a point guard, of course, that’s going to create significant issues with the roster, and we saw some of those play out. We know this offseason, one of our primary goals is going to be to add size in our frontcourt at the center position.”
— Rob Pelinka, May 2025
Lakers GM Pelinka tried to acquire center at the deadline to provide Luka Doncic with a lob threat and help fill the hole made by trading away . But the trade was rescinded after a failed physical.
While the Lakers do not have cap space to sign free agent , for example, Los Angeles does have a 2031 or 2032 first-round pick, five years of pick swaps, 2024 first-round pick and over $70 million in expiring contracts (Reaves, , , and ) to use in a trade.
The Lakers will continue to juggle a win-now approach with on the roster and building a sustainable roster for the future centered around Doncic. He is eligible to sign a four-year, $229 million extension on Aug. 2.
“Me not having a second championship — I look back at my career and everybody can say, ‘Oh, incredible career, active Hall of Famer, first ballot, whatever. But me, my personal goal, if I am not able to help my team win a second ring, I’m letting down myself.”
— Giannis Antetokounmpo, April 2025 (via Thanalysis podcast)
The Bucks will be the center of the NBA universe this offseason for two reasons.
ESPN’s Shams Charania reported in mid-May that Antetokounmpo is open to exploring whether his best long-term fit is remaining with the Bucks or elsewhere.
Antetokounmpo is under contract for the next three seasons, with 2027-28 as a player option. The 30-year-old two-time MVP will be eligible to sign a four-year, $293.4 million extension in the 2026 offseason — either with the Bucks or a new team.
And like any offseason, Milwaukee is on the clock to put a championship around the former MVP.
Improving the top-heavy roster could prove difficult this summer. Milwaukee cannot trade multiple first-round picks and currently can move only its 2031 or 2032 pick. Antetokounmpo, and will earn a combined $130 million of the Bucks’ $164 million in payroll next season.
Lillard will turn 35 in July and is owed $113 million over the next two seasons while recovering from a torn Achilles. Lopez, , , . and . all could become free agents this summer. (Portis and Porter have player options.) There are positives, however. Milwaukee is no longer in financial purgatory and can add in free agency or via trade. It also plays in a wide-open Eastern Conference, where there is no prohibitive favorite next season.
“We’re ready to kind of turn the page on our rebuild and enter the next stage of our team and look at it through a more win-now lens.”
— Jeff Weltman, April 2025
We don’t want to call Weltman conservative, but Orlando’s head of basketball operations has attempted to thread the needle in drafting, developing, retaining and competing for a top-six seed in the Eastern Conference recently.
Since 2021, Orlando has built through the draft. The Magic have a league-high nine players selected in the draft and only two — . and — acquired via trade. The strategy has temporarily worked, with Orlando reaching the first round of the playoffs in consecutive seasons. But it has also failed to advance both times, and with the first years of and ‘ extensions set to begin, the Magic project to be over the luxury tax and first apron.
How the Magic take the next step depends on Weltman’s adjustment when healthy, and whether Orlando can compete for a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference. The Magic went through the regular season with their top four scorers — , Suggs, Franz Wagner and — each missing at least 20 games. The team’s core of Banchero, Suggs and Wagner played just six games together and 3% of Orlando’s possessions.
The Magic have the draft assets and contracts to be aggressive this offseason if additional help is needed from the outside. The Magic became the first team since the 2016-17 to rank last in 3-point percentage and reach the postseason. Not only do they have two firsts in this year’s draft, but the ability to trade up to four in the next seven years. They also have the right to swap firsts each season.
“I want my career to end on my terms, that’s the only thing. That’s the only thing I’m worried about. ‘Cause I see a lot of dudes that don’t get that opportunity, so I want to keep putting in that work to make that choice on my own.”
— Kevin Durant, via “The Draymond Green Show with Baron Davis”
If Antetokounmpo is 1A on teams’ wish lists this offseason, then Durant is a close 1B.
The 37-year-old averaged 26.6 points last season, sixth most in the NBA, and has averaged fewer than 25 points only once, his rookie season.
After two underachieving and expensive seasons, the Suns will likely reset their roster, starting with exploring trades for the All-Star. Durant is in the last year of his contract, and without an extension or trade, the Suns risk losing him for nothing next offseason.
There are three factors that could play a role in the trade package Phoenix could receive:
Can Phoenix drop below the second apron to aggregate contracts sent out? Or below the first apron to use more than 100% of the traded player exception? The Suns are a projected $25 million over the second apron but could shed significant salary if ($8.7 million) is waived, ‘s $8.1 million team option is declined and is bought out of his contract. The same apron rules apply to teams interested in acquiring Durant’s $54.6 million salary.
Is Durant willing to sign a two-year, $112 million extension with his new team?
Is the team trading for Durant still in position to compete for a championship?
“It just shows that they’re not here to waste time and they’re willing to take the next step on time. We’re moving forward. I think it’s a good step in the building of our future.”
— , February 2025
Like Houston, San Antonio fits the requirements — draft assets, young players, sizable contracts and a win-now roster — to add a third star next to Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox.
Not only does San Antonio have two picks in the lottery, including No. 2, but the Spurs also have the right to swap firsts with the in 2026, the Hawks’ unprotected first in 2027 and multiple other pick swaps. The Spurs are also allowed to trade two of their own first-round picks (2029 and 2031 or 2030 and 2032). The Spurs have 17 second-rounders available to trade.
They also have an advantage of financial flexibility to aggregate contracts sent out and take back more salary in a trade. Entering the offseason, San Antonio is $32 and $44 million below both respective aprons. Not including Fox and Wembanyama, the Spurs have 10 players earning between $3 to $27 million.
