will eventually pick a new team. No one is sure when () James will make his decision for his 24th season. But even at 41, the league’s all-time leading scorer is still playing at an elite level, so the team he chooses this summer will feel it is a step closer to winning a championship.
When James makes his free-agency decision, much of the focus will be on his new team and how the four-time MVP fits on the roster. At the same time, how the teams that miss out on James pivot will be similarly fascinating. History tells us that the team with which James lands will thrive, while the teams he snubs will find life much harder in the near future.
Back in 2010, James chose the over returning to the , joining the or the . The Heat went on to win two titles, while the other three never even made it close to the NBA Finals during James’ tenure in Miami. In 2014, the Heat were left scrambling after James returned to Cleveland, winning a title with the Cavaliers, while Miami took six years to return to the Finals. In 2018, James left the Cavs again to go to the and quickly won a title in 2020 while Cleveland has tried to build a contender in his absence but has not reached the Finals since.
This free agency is a bit different. The stakes aren’t quite as high as James is picking a team where he will be a complementary piece. Some of the teams pursuing James have already made big moves — like the trading for or the trading for — but the teams awaiting word of his decision aren’t holding up cap space to sign him that they’ll be left scrambling to use. At the same time, with James set to take a minimum deal or a portion of the mid-level, there is no one available at the same price point who will have even remotely the same impact on winning as he will provide.
That all begs the question: What does Plan B look like for the teams that miss out on James? Let’s explore, team by team.
There are three teams that have been considered frontrunners from the start — Cleveland, Miami and the . Those three, more than the rest, will be hurt most by not adding James because they’ve had to plan more for his potential arrival. The Cavs let walk to retain space to sign James and remains unsigned after declining his player option, a move designed to give Cleveland financial flexibility. An agreement with Harden figures to come quickly after James’ decision, but the Cavs will also suddenly find themselves needing to bolster their frontcourt depth with little money to spend and few options available.
The most likely answer is that the Cavs fill out the roster with minimum-salary players and try to run it back coming off an Eastern Conference Finals appearance. However, there have been rumblings that they’ve explored trade options involving and Dennis Schröder, which could create more financial flexibility or simply net them players to shake up their rotation.
the Cavs spoke with early in free agency but put any conversations with the young wing on hold as they wait out a decision from James. Perhaps he becomes a target again for the Cavs, where a sign-and-trade involving Strus could interest the . Then there’s , who is the best available veteran free agent forward after getting waived by the , and figures to be an early call for a lot of teams that miss out on James. He’ll likely have offers above the minimum, which will again make it hard for Cleveland to be a frontrunner for his services.
The Warriors, like the Cavs, have a star in who declined a player option to free up money to bring in James. Bringing Green back will be part of Golden State’s plans regardless of James’ decision, but how they use the mid-level exception they’ve created if James goes elsewhere becomes very interesting.
Because they have the mid-level to offer, the Warriors feel like the most likely landing spot for DeRozan if they miss out on James. They need another player who can create for himself. And while DeRozan doesn’t raise the ceiling the same way James does, he would help them raise their floor. It’s safe to assume they won’t enter the Kuminga sweepstakes, but they could look at other veteran wings on the market, like , to fill out their roster, given the uncertainty of ‘s health for next year.
The Heat are going to be desperate for shooting, no matter what James does. But if they miss out on him, they could offer a portion of the mid-level rather than simply filling out the roster with minimums. The first apron hard cap after the trade limits what they can do, but DeRozan could be in play — although he doesn’t address the three-point shooting needs. When declined his option with the , the immediate assumption of many was that he’d end up in Miami, where he was long rumored to be a trade target with mutual interest. Perhaps would return to the Heat on a team-friendly deal to try to revitalize his career.
Now we get to the teams that weren’t immediately considered frontrunners for James, but became increasingly interesting options if he wanted to contend for a championship. The truth is, the Sixers don’t have a true Plan B if James doesn’t sign because they really can’t. Philly will hit the veteran minimum marketplace to fill out their roster behind a new star-studded starting lineup after flipping for Jaylen Brown, but unlike Cleveland or Golden State, they’ve already made their big swing this year to get fans excited, which allows them to freeroll the LeBron sweepstakes.
The will turn their full attention to ‘s restricted free agency once James makes his decision. The expectation has been that Watson will remain a Nugget no matter what, but there has been talk of a potential sign-and-trade. The problem with that is, Denver reportedly wants a return like , and there isn’t a team desperate enough for Watson for that kind of offer to likely be out there.
Beyond Watson, Denver will also look to fill out the roster with minimum-salary contracts. A backup center will be a top priority, followed by finding veterans on the wing. is a buyout candidate in Memphis after picking up his $21.6 million player option, and if he were to be waived, a return to Denver would make plenty of sense for a player who has struggled to make the same impact since leaving the Nuggets.
The Timberwolves roster is just about set, and it’s a matter of whether they get a huge boost by adding James or go into next season mostly with the group they’ve already assembled. It’s been an active summer for Minnesota, trading away and and bringing back LaMelo Ball to create a new star backcourt duo with . James would upgrade their power forward spot considerably, but if he doesn’t choose Minnesota, they’ll likely stick with the group they’ve got.
