IPL 2026: Each team’s qualification probability revealed after RCB’s win over KKR

The Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) have one foot inside the 2026 Indian Premier League (IPL) playoffs after securing a win over the Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) in Raipur on Wednesday, May 13. The defending champions secured a six-wicket win over their opponents after Virat Kohli scored an unbeaten 105 from just 60 balls. 

According to Star Sports, RCB now have a whopping 92.6 per cent chance of finishing the league phase within the top four. This makes them one of the favourites to finish in the top two, giving teams two chances to make it through to the finals in Ahmedabad on May 31. 

It is worth mentioning that RCB do not have the highest qualification percentage despite their convincing win against the Knight Riders. That honour goes to the Gujarat Titans (GT), who have a qualification chance of 94.8 per cent following a run of five consecutive victories. The 2022 champions are currently second in the standings with 16 points from 12 matches, the same as RCB. Rajat Patidar’s side, however, have a much superior net run rate. 

Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) and the Punjab Kings (PBKS) come next with a qualification probability of 64.7 and 62.8 per cent, respectively. The Kings are still deemed to be one of the four favourites to make it into the latter stages of the tournament despite their recent run of four straight losses. However, they still have 13 points with three matches in hand. 

The Rajasthan Royals (RR) were the early-season pace-setters but have since had a drop in form. The 2008 champions have 12 points from 11 matches and currently find themselves sixth in the standings, with two successive defeats. They are behind the Chennai Super Kings (CSK), in both the points table and qualification probability, with 40.6 per cent compared to the five-time champions, 41.7. 

As things stand, the Delhi Capitals and KKR still have a mathematical chance of qualifying for the playoffs, but will require an absolute miracle to make that happen. Both sides have a probability of just 1.0 and 1.8 per cent of finishing in the top four.