It’s a bit quaint to look back on the past in the NBA and remember the late-season playoff hunts. Teams were really seeking the No. 1 seed and home-court advantage through the playoffs. When Michael Jordan and the had their double three-peat in the 1990s, you know what their record was from March 5 through the end of the regular season? 112-30. They won 79% of their games, and Jordan didn’t sit them out.
With load management and the play-in tournament, there are different ways of managing a team’s late stretch to set up for playoff success. The came from the 4-seed to nearly take out the in the NBA Finals last season. The came from a 5-seed to make the Finals the year before. So now there are different targets. A top-six seed is important to avoid the play-in, but note that Miami made the Finals in 2023 after going through the play-in.
What follows are some of the races for different seeds that teams hope to set themselves up for in the playoffs in April.
All stats through Sunday.
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The Thunder and Spurs each have at least a 98% chance to stay in the top two seeds in the West. The play-in spots are nearly locked in across the Suns, Warriors, Clippers and Trail Blazers, with some uncertainty in their order. But there is a race among four teams to get to the two remaining first-round home-court advantage spots.
Projected record: 51-31 (55% chance at top-four seed)
Remaining strength of schedule rank: 10th hardest
Number of tanking teams they’ll face: 4 (Washington, Utah, Sacramento, Chicago, Dallas, Memphis, and Indiana are considered to be tankful teams)
With ESPN Analytics, we tend to approach things quantitatively, capturing the essence of a story through numbers. Houston, for example, wins games by an average of plus-4.7 points, with a league-leading plus-4.1 of that coming . The Rockets are also good in transition offense, getting plus-3.4 net points per game, ranking No. 7 in the NBA. They also turn it over a lot, 15.7 times per game, the most of any team currently in playoff position. On the other end of the floor, they’re top seven on defense.
Sometimes those numbers paint a nice picture. In this case, if you look carefully, a lot of those numbers for Houston are actually a lot like the , the best team in the league. The Pistons are fourth in offensive rebounding and fifth in transition offense, have the third most turnovers among playoff teams, and play top-five defense.
So does Houston have a chance to pull it together like Detroit? When watching the tape, what comes to mind are words such as “ugly,” “ill-fitting” and “disconnected.”
For the Rockets’ sake, hopefully the stretch run follows the numbers, not the words.
Critical games: Two games against the Lakers (March 16 and 18), two games against the Wolves (March 25, April 10) and a game against Denver on Wednesday.
Projected record: 50-32 (52% chance at top-four seed)
Remaining strength of schedule rank: Fourth hardest
Number of tanking teams they’ll face: 3
The Timberwolves have had the fewest losses added by injury this season, a year removed from being fourth best at it. Their general health is a superpower that partially makes up for them being just generally good, not great. They’re top 10 in almost every extended , but they’re in the top five in only one: transition offense.
is great, though. He is top 15 in — whether it’s total net points, net points per 100 possessions or WAR. That’s All-NBA level, but is it blow-you-away great? Ant has the one-word nickname, but is he up there with SGA, Jokic, Luka, Kawhi and Spida? Does he need to be? carried a solid Indiana roster to within a few minutes of a title last season as the No. 4 seed. The Pacers earned that spot by having a 15-4 record from March 11 to the end of the season. Minnesota has the fourth-most-difficult schedule down the stretch, so it will be hard to do that, but Indiana coincidentally had the fifth-hardest schedule down the stretch last season as well.
Critical games: Lakers (Tuesday), Clippers (Wednesday) and Warriors (Friday). That could be a fun or agonizing trip. Then a pause before two against Houston (March 25 and April 10).
Projected record: 50-32 (59% chance at top-four seed)
Remaining strength of schedule rank: 12th hardest
Number of tanking teams they’ll face: 5
The biggest hurdle the Nuggets face down the stretch is the sudden malaise of (or mal-wrist, per ESPN’s Brian Windhorst). For years, he has been a standout in terms of performance, as legitimately the best player on the planet. The Nuggets were dominant with him on the court and bad with him off it. His ability to make a pass no one else could imagine turned them into an automatic top offense.
The Nuggets had the best offense before his injury this season, and he was the second-best offensive player in the league (behind ). Since his return, their offense has fallen to sixth and his net points per 48 minutes level has dropped to seventh. Did they use Jokic-style kryptonite as part of his rehab?
Sure, the Nuggets are missing and he’s important, but only Jokic makes opponents fear them. And he hasn’t been right.
Critical games: One game against the Lakers (March 14), a game against Houston (March 11), two games against the Spurs (April 4 and 12) and a game against the Warriors (March 29).
Projected record: 48-34 (31% chance at top-four seed)
Remaining strength of schedule rank: Sixth hardest
Number of tanking teams they’ll face: 5
The phrase “treating people like numbers” implies an impersonal touch to working with people. In the great game of basketball, especially in the analytics era that I helped push myself, I think of this as often manifesting itself somewhat in lineup analysis: Which lineups are good and which are bad? The Lakers have messed around with a lot of lineups. Who can we play with and to actually be good? Should we play as a starter or as a reserve? Should we play at all?
Those are questions that numbers can provide some guidance on, but coaching is about figuring out how to best put those same players together and then teaching them. It’s not just about fiddling with the pieces, but also making those pieces work together better.
And that is what is staring down coach JJ Redick currently, the past six months and the next couple of months: how to coach the guys he has so they do their roles better. It isn’t happening now. Doncic, James and Reaves are all good, but they don’t complement each other: James and Reaves have better offensive net points rates without Doncic; Doncic and Reaves are better without James; and Doncic and James are better without Reaves. Figuring out how they can best work together could take the Lakers into the top four and beyond with the talent they have.
Critical games: The next 10 days or so are critical, with two games against Houston and one apiece against Denver and Minnesota. Winning all of them is hard, but these guys all want the spotlight, and these games will bring it.
In the East, the Celtics, Knicks and Cavs are bunched up in a heat to get the No. 2 seed, with their chances to capture it changing a good amount with each game. But then there is also a four-way fight between the Raptors, Sixers, Magic and Heat to get the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds to avoid the play-in.
Projected record: 53-29 (53% chance at top-two seed)
Remaining strength of schedule rank: Hardest
Number of tanking teams they’ll face: 2
The Celtics have the hardest schedule remaining per the BPI, but is back! His return — — is viewed favorably by the BPI, which is why it gives them good odds at the No. 2 seed in the East. It is really assuming that he comes back close to where he has been (). If he is at that level, the medical staff did their job and he got sufficient reps with all the rotation players who weren’t there when he got hurt — , , .
The Celtics have done a great job ignoring the Tatum question in the room so far and taking care of business. They aren’t actually better than last season (when they won 61 games), but it feels like it because they never put up a stinker (until the Charlotte game last Wednesday). They’re the anti-Lakers, who seem to either win or get blown out this season. Tatum’s return is only going to add to their competitiveness and their talent level. Any awkwardness in fitting Tatum with teammates is better to work out before the playoffs, regardless of what seed they get.
Critical games: The game against the Knicks on April 9 looks critical now, but there is a whole month ahead of that matchup to determine whether it stays critical. The Celtics still get the Thunder twice and the Spurs once, which are more critical as tests of their high-end competitiveness than toward keeping the second seed.
Projected record: 53-29 (38% chance at top-two seed)
Remaining strength of schedule rank: 24th hardest
Number of tanking teams they’ll face: 6
You know what probably hurts the Knicks the most? The fact that their fan base thinks they’re title favorites after every win and that they should trade every guy on their roster (except ) after every loss.
Yes, the Knicks are inconsistent. , and are all among the top 50 most inconsistent players across the past three seasons. (The fan base would subjectively add , too.) What this means is, over the past nearly three seasons, Anunoby has had 44 games with plus-3 net points or more, 44 games with worse than minus-3 net points, and 84 games in between. He’s good for a game, average for two, and then bad for a game. With two other guys following the same pattern, that’s a big reason the fan base is frustrated.
Critical games: The Knicks play Boston on April 9, and it could be critical for both teams to get the No. 2. Outside of that, taking care of some of their tough matchups — Houston, Charlotte and the Clippers — is what would benefit them the most.
Projected record: 52-30 (11% chance at top-two seed)
Remaining strength of schedule rank: 29th hardest
Number of tanking teams they’ll face: 7
Despite what has seemed like a disappointing season for the Cavs, they have the second-best offense when schedule-adjusted and the BPI ranks them fifth overall in terms of playoff strength (which is when the best players will fight through injury).
But the BPI liked them in the playoffs last year, and they disappointed with a second-round exit to the Indiana Pacers. That has been the theme for this team: playoff disappointments despite how strong the regular season was. has spun the regular-season struggles this year as an opportunity to learn to fight through adversity in preparation for the upcoming playoffs. With that mentality, I’m not sure the Cavs care about getting the No. 2 seed. They’ll be happy anywhere in the top four in the East, and they have a 98% chance of that.
Critical games: The Cavs have no head-to-head matchups left with either Boston or New York, so it’s really about taking care of business against a pretty easy schedule.
Projected record: 45-37 (54% chance at top-six seed)
Remaining strength of schedule rank: 17th hardest
Number of tanking teams they’ll face: 4
The Raptors are 6-17 against the BPI top 10 teams in the NBA, and they have gone 10-13 against the teams remaining on their schedule. Their ability to keep the play-in at bay is currently questionable at best. The BPI might give them a solid 54% chance of making the top six in the East, but it has whiffed more on Toronto predictions this season than any other playoff contender other than Philadelphia.
The BPI doesn’t trust the Raptors. Why? One part is normal: Their best player just isn’t elite. is a good player, but he’s not an All-NBA caliber player yet. The other part is that they’ve been playing without a legitimate center for much of the season — Barnes, and have filled in as a committee. Barnes and Murray-Boyles are tough, and Mamukelashvili is tall, so it gives them a chance. But having return from injury recently is what can really help because he’s good in putbacks. The Raptors can get offensive boards, but size like Poeltl’s helps a lot in converting them into points.
Critical games: The Raptors get Miami twice in the last week of the season, and those games will likely be important. Orlando at the end of March also will be critical.
Projected record: 44-38 (24% chance at top-six seed)
Remaining strength of schedule rank: 21st hardest
Number of tanking teams they’ll face: 6
leads the NBA in — a combination of volume and efficiency. But when the Sixers faced the second-best transition defense in the league, the Spurs on March 3, Maxey was stymied in both transition and the half court. And that’s important for the Sixers down the stretch.
Maxey has averaged plus-5.3 offensive net points per game when the Sixers win, minus-0.4 when they lose, the biggest split on the Sixers and a top-10 split across the league. Without a healthy or , he has to carry a lot, so it’s not too difficult for playoff-level teams to limit him. Embiid’s performance has been good this season at plus-3.2 net points per 48 minutes, but you never know when he’s going to play. We know that George won’t be back until later in March with his suspension, so Maxey will be carrying the load for a while once he returns from his right finger sprain.
Critical games: The Sixers have only one game remaining against this tier of teams (at Miami, March 30) and it’s their most critical game. Then doing some hard work to beat Charlotte, Minnesota, Houston and Detroit will help them. Otherwise, it’s not a tough schedule.
Projected record: 44-38 (50% chance at top-six seed)
Remaining strength of schedule rank: 14th hardest
Number of tanking teams they’ll face: 5
Orlando gets seven games against tanking teams. So far this season, the Magic’s nominal team leader, , actually hasn’t been very good against those teams, averaging just plus-1.9 net points per 48 minutes, which is 110th. But that was when the tankers still wanted to win! Since the deadline, which is when tanksgiving began, Banchero has produced plus-5.3 net points per 48 minutes. If he keeps that up, it should help as he has Orlando’s highest usage rate.
But, that list of most inconsistent players I mentioned regarding the Knicks before — Banchero leads that, as No. 1 in most inconsistent performances in the past three years. If you want to know whether the Magic will win or lose, look to him.
Critical games: The Magic get Toronto and Miami before the end of March, and those games will go the furthest in impacting their top-six hopes. Keeping Charlotte and Atlanta (twice) at bay are their other big ones.
Projected record: 45-37 (55% chance at top-six seed)
Remaining strength of schedule rank: 22nd hardest
Number of tanking teams they’ll face: 4
Miami is the team that went 11-30 in 2016-17, then went 30-11 the rest of the way. I always remember that when it comes to Erik Spoelstra-led teams. They can really turn the ship around in a hurry. The Heat did it when they went to the Finals against Denver in 2023, as well, after having to go through the play-in as the No. 8 seed.
They’re probably saying, “We don’t need no top-six seed.”
Well, the coaching staff isn’t saying that. Coaches generally are some of the most worried people in the game. They want every game to be easy and, frankly, the Heat have a mixed bag of easy and hard. They get the Wizards three times, but …
Critical games: As the weather turns hot in Miami, so does the schedule. The Heat play Toronto twice, as well as Charlotte, Philadelphia and Orlando the rest of the way, all games that will shape the final top six.
