India head into the final round of Group A fixtures at the Women’s T20 World Cup with their semifinal fate firmly in their own hands. Harmanpreet Kaur’s side climbed to second in the standings after defeating Bangladesh on Thursday, leaving them one win away from sealing a place in the last four and ended the day on second place despite South Africa’s 88-run win over the Netherlands in Bristol.
Australia have almost secured a semifinal berth after winning all four of their matches, leaving India and South Africa to battle for the remaining qualification spot from Group A. South Africa enter the final league stage clash with six points and a net run rate of +0.734 while India have the same number of points, but a far superior net run rate of +2.268.
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Bangladesh, although still mathematically in contention, would require a remarkable sequence of results and a substantial swing in net run rate to make it through.
With South Africa taking on Bangladesh earlier on Sunday at Lord’s, India will know exactly what is required before they face Australia later in the day.
Scenario 1: India beat Australia
This is the most straightforward route.
A victory over Australia would take India to eight points and guarantee qualification for the semifinals regardless of the result in the earlier match between South Africa and Bangladesh.
Scenario 2: India lose, South Africa lose
India would still qualify. If Bangladesh upset South Africa and India lose to Australia, all three teams would finish on six points. India would retain second place because of their superior net run rate.
Scenario 3: India lose, South Africa win
This is the one scenario India will desperately hope to avoid.
A South African victory would take the Proteas to eight points. If India then lose to Australia, they would remain on six points and be eliminated from the tournament. The margin of India’s defeat would make no difference because South Africa would qualify by finishing with more points.
Scenario 4: Rain affects one or both matches
Weather could still have a significant say in the final standings.
If South Africa’s match against Bangladesh is washed out, the Proteas would move to seven points. India would then need either a win or a washout against Australia to qualify. A defeat would leave them on six points and send South Africa through.
If India’s match is washed out after South Africa have beaten Bangladesh, India would finish on seven points while South Africa would have eight, ending India’s campaign.
However, if South Africa fail to beat Bangladesh and India’s match is abandoned, India would progress to the semifinals.
Net run rate
Unlike earlier in the tournament, net run rate is unlikely to determine qualification if South Africa win and India lose, because the Proteas would simply finish on more points. Net run rate becomes relevant only if teams finish level on points, making it important if both India and South Africa win their respective matches or if matches end without a result
