Dillon Dingler stakes his claim among the top catchers in baseball

Sometimes, injuries are opportunities. Baseball abounds with stories of starting players who suffered an injury only to see a younger player seize the opportunity and push them permanently to a part-time role. To a lesser degree, this is the dynamic between Jake Rogers and his former understudy. Dillon Dingler has seized the reins, hit the cover off the baseball, and proven himself one of the top defensive catchers in baseball over the last five weeks. Whenever Rogers returns, the split in playing time may still favor Dingler unless his bat really cools and Rogers’ heats up. Either way, it’s pretty clear that Dingler’s time is here.

We always expected Dingler to be a very good defensive catcher. The arm strength, intelligence, work ethic, and athleticism were never in question. Frankl, national and local prospect writers, including myself, undervalued his defensive value as a prospect. Sure there have been questions about the bat, and Dingler’s hitting really stalled out for two years at the Double-A level. But his defense was always likely to make him at least an average major league player as long as he cleared the pretty low bar for catcher offense. He probably should’ve gotten more top 100 prospect love nationally heading into this season. The bat just kept everyone a little wary until he broke out at the Triple-A level in 2024.

Here we are in mid-May, and Dingler has already been worth 1.2 fWAR. Baseball Reference has him a bit lower at 0.9 wins above replacement, but either way he’s on track for a four to five win season if he keeps things up. If the bat cools he’s still likely to end up in 3-4 WAR territory even assuming Rogers returns in the next few weeks to catch two out of every five starts for the rotation.

Defense

This is going to be short and sweet, as it’s pretty obvious Dingler is among the elite catchers in the game behind the plate. He no doubt still has things to learn in terms of calling games, but the Tigers coach catching really well. If there are areas on which to improve, it’s a good best that Dingler will continue to improve on them.

Jake Rogers came to Detroit already with the reputation as one of the best defensive catching prospects in years. That wasn’t enough for A.J. Hinch, who took over the club in 2021. He and catching coordinator Ryan Sienko, among others, worked Rogers hard to become even better, and we have further evidence in Carson Kelly, who adopted the Tigers knee down setup last season and has improved his marks defensively as well.

Right now, Dingler leads all major league catchers in blocks above average, with seven. Liam Hicks and Carlos Narváez are next with just four.

Dingler is tied for sixth in catcher framing runs, with two. Five catchers are tied in first with three runs gained by framing strikes.

Dingler is tied for 21st in pop time, at an average of 1.95 seconds from catching the ball to it reaching second base. He’s about a tenth of a second slower that Francisco Alvarez, who leads the league. The knee down stance probably contributes to a slightly slower time than the best, as Dingler grades out as having the best throwing arm of any catcher in baseball. He average 85.8 mph, with the two next best starting catchers throwing about two miles per hour slower.

We won’t belabor the point. It’s still early in the season, but Dingler compared very well to the league last season, and this season he’s right up at the top of the charts. His accuracy could be a little better, but overall he’s fourth in defensive value among all catchers, per FanGraphs, and sixth by defensive runs saved (DRS).

Offense

Offensive production was always the big sticking point during Dingler’s rise through the Detroit Tigers’ farm system. His power was obvious, but for most of his time on the farm he was a pretty disciplined fastball hitter who struggled with everything else. He always took his walks, but he struck out just over 30 percent of the time at the Double-A level from 2021-2023.

Part of the reason for Dingler slipping in prospect assessment’s was due to the long stay at the Double-A level. By the time he started figuring out Triple-A in 2024, he was already 25 years old.

He did figure it out though, slashing .308/.379/.559 with 17 homers in 71 games for the Mud Hens last year. Much of that production was still against fastballs, against which he posted a fairly monstrous .433 wOBA. However, he also mashed breaking balls quite well too, posting a .374 wOBA which was still well above average. Offspeed stuff, particularly splitters, continued to give him trouble, and the same is true today, but by shoring up his production and cutting his whiffs against breaking balls, most pitchers had little choice but to throw him plenty of fastballs for strikes, and they got lit up in the process.

Still, while we kept in mind the fact that he was learning a new staff on the run and in the middle of what shockingly became a race for a Wild Card spot after joining the Tigers at the end of July 2024, Dingler’s offensive struggles in his major league debut left lingering concerns about his ability to really produce at the highest level.

So far, those concerns have been alleviated.

Currently this season, Dingler holds a .343 wOBA. His expected wOBA, or xwOBA, is .335, illustrating that he’s not really getting too lucky. He’s hitting .291, with an expected batting average or xBA, of .279.

We are seeing a bit of a renaissance in good hitting catchers these days. Dingler is just 25th best in wOBA among qualified catchers. If we limit the search to catchers with 70 plate appearances or more, basically sorting out the backup catchers from the list, Dingler is 11th best in the league by wOBA and ninth in wRC+ with a 122 mark.

The one weakness is Dingler’s offensive game continues to be his free-swinging nature. While he drew plenty of walks in the minor leagues, he has just one this season. His O-Swing percentage is a pretty high 33.7 percent, so he is chasing pitches out of the zone about six percent more than league average for all hitters combined. His 28.3 percent strikeout rate is certainly higher than league average as well.

However, despite a high .377 BABIP, the reason the expected stats through Statcast don’t predict too much regression is the fact that Dingler is finding his pitch and hitting the heck out of the baseball while doing a great job of keeping the ball off the ground.

Dingler holds a 27.4 percent line drive rate compared to a league average of 19.3 percent. He also holds a very low 34.2 percent ground ball rate compared to a league average of 42.3 percent. When he does put the ball in the air, he’s not popping up much more than a league average rate. Instead he’s maximizing the contact he makes by getting pitches he can drive hard on a line or in the air, and he is definitely hitting them hard.

Currently rocking a 46.6 percent hard hit rate which is 5.9 percent better than league average, Dingler is averaging 90.7 mph off the bat compared to a league average of 89.4 percent. He’s shown off the plus power with a max exit velocity of 110.4 mph, and 10 of his 30 hits have been for extra bases. He has four homers, five doubles, and one triple already.

All of this while playing most days and not enjoying the advantage of hitting in a favorable platoon, unlike several other highly ranked offensive catchers. Dingler holds a .326 wOBA against right-handed pitching, which is about league average. He has only had about eight games worth of at-bats against left-handers—we are still in pretty small sample territory after all—and he’s rocked them for a .385 wOBA.

League average wOBA is .314, as a reference point.

Dingler is hitting his fastballs as usual, but he is struggling more with breaking balls at the major league level, as you’d expect. However, he’s made up for it by killing offspeed pitches to the tune of a .560 wOBA so far.

As a little kicker, Dingler is also the seventh fastest catcher in terms of spring speed, at an average of 27.1 feet per second, which is slightly above average even compared to all other position players, let alone catchers. He hasn’t added any plus value by baserunning, but he certainly is far from the base clogging catchers around the league.

Dingler is one of the best

Pitchers may eventually start taking advantage of Dingler’s willingness to swing the bat, but so far it hasn’t helped them much. His average is going to fall, but his walk rate should rise closer to average levels to counteract it. Not only is he one of the top defensive catchers in the game, but he’s proving himself as a solid offensive force as well.

Digging well beyond the numbers quoted, I do think he’s likely to cool off into more of an average hitter compared to the rest of the league, not just catchers, but with that defensive value, which the Tigers value far and away beyond all else in their catchers, there’s a good chance we’re looking at a consistent 3-4 WAR catcher, year in and year out, through his projected prime years.

In a few years, top catching prospects like Thayron Liranzo, Josue Briceño, and Enrique Jimenez, who is still in Complex League ball and raking in the early going as a 19-year-old and soon will reach Single-A Lakeland, should be ready to take over from Jake Rogers as he hits free agency. All three have serious offensive potential, but are unlikely to be as good as Dingler defensively.

In the meantime, the Detroit Tigers are in great shape at the catcher position. It’s Dillon Dingler’s time now, and he’s well on his way to establishing himself as one of the key pieces of the roster through what is shaping up to be a pretty good era of Tigers’ baseball now underway. With Rogers giving him more rest days and roughly splitting time once he’s ready to return, Dingler should be ready to sustain average or better offensive production throughout the long season. Behind the plate, Dillon Dingler is now one of the top catchers in baseball.