College basketball’s NIL is killing the NBA Draft, and Yaxel Lendeborg’s decision is more proof

Yaxel Lendeborg felt like he had the toughest 2025 NBA Draft decision of any early entry candidate. The 22-year-old big man emerged as one of the best players in college basketball this past season at UAB as an offensive supernova who doubled as a high-level defensive anchor. Lendeborg put his name in the transfer portal and committed to Michigan while testing out the NBA Draft waters, where he hoped to be a first-round pick.

Lendeborg has made his decision, and Michigan’s gain is the NBA’s loss. Lendeborg will go back to college and play his senior year for the Wolverines. He announced his decision in an amazing social media video that cut up A Tribe Called Quest with classic Michigan basketball highlights.

This is gigantic news for both the NBA Draft and men’s college hoops, and another example of how NIL dollars are keeping top talents at the college level and killing the depth of the draft.

We ranked Lendeborg as the No. 1 overall player in the portal in April. ESPN reported that he has a “multimillion-dollar NIL package” from Michigan, with some unconfirmed estimates believing it’s for around $2.5 million and potentially closer to $3-4 million. That’s more money than Lendeborg was going to make on his NBA rookie contract unless he went around the end of the lottery. There were financial incentives for Lendeborg if he chose to turn pro — he could get the clock started on his second contract earlier, when the real money comes in — but he’s betting he can raise his draft stock and maximize his annual earnings by going to Michigan.

Lendeborg was considered a true borderline first-rounder. His range went from 25-40 in most mock drafts. Only the top-30 picks in the NBA draft are promised a guaranteed contract, but plenty of teams have been giving out guaranteed money to second round picks in recent years for longer-term deals with more team control. Lendeborg apparently didn’t like what he heard from pro scouts enough to bypassing the short-term financial windfall of going to Michigan.

This decision is another example of how NIL money is killing the draft. While top prospects will continue turning pro, the depth of this draft class has taken a big hit with NIL money convincing late first and second round picks to go back to college. Lendeborg is the biggest example yet of NIL money keeping a solid NBA prospect in college, but players like Iowa’s Bennett Stirtz, Florida’s Boogie Fland and Alex Condon, Arkansas’ Karter Knox, NC State’s Darrion Williams, and St. John’s Ian Jackson all would have been taken in the 2025 NBA Draft if they kept their name in. Instead, these players are getting a bag from their college teams and hoping to go even higher in 2026.

Jon Givony of ESPN reported that the 2025 NBA Draft has the lowest number of early entrants in a decade. This number will continue to get even smaller as players like Lendeborg pull out of the draft.

Yaxel Lendeborg’s return is a huge boon for Michigan

Michigan is going to be one of the best teams in men’s college basketball for the 2025-26 season. Head coach Dusty May is losing top performers like Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin off last season’s Sweet 16 team, but he has even more talent coming in for next season.

Lendeborg should be the hub of everything Michigan does at both ends of the court. He measured at 6’8.5 without shoes at 234 pounds with a 7’4 wingspan at the draft combine. That’s outstanding size for a college big, and it’s likely he’ll be spending some time at the four with Morez Johnson and Aday Mara also landing at Michigan in the transfer portal. Lendeborg is an outstanding passer and efficient scorer at his size who has started to develop his three-point shooting range after hitting 35.7 percent of his threes on two attempts per game last season.

He’s also on the boards and provides legitimate rim protection to the backline. His Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year award was no fluke. Just look at this statistical profile, via Tankathon:

Lendeborg will headline a Michigan starting lineup that should include Johnson next to him in the front court, Elliot Cadeau at point guard, and Roddy Gayle and Nimari Burnett on the wings. Michigan also has 7’3 center Aday Mara from UCLA, and five-star freshman Trey McKenney coming in.

The Wolverines and Purdue are my early favorites to win the Big Ten, and Lendeborg and Purdue’s Braden Smith are my early choices as Big Ten Preseason Player of the Year. It’s a loaded conference, but Michigan has a real opportunity to win big this season now.

Yaxel Lendeborg’s college return is a tough blow for the NBA Draft

There were plenty of teams in the top-40 who have to be disappointed to hear Lendeborg is returning to college.

The Brooklyn Nets made a lot of sense for Lendeborg as a team picking at No. 26, No. 27, and No. 36 in the 2025 NBA Draft. The Boston Celtics could have targeted him at No. 28 or No. 32. The Phoenix Suns felt like a potential landing spot at No. 29, and the Charlotte Hornets would have been a good fit as well with two early second round picks at No. 33 and No. 34.

I’d say the 2025 NBA Draft is slightly stronger than the average draft class in the first round, but there’s no doubt that the depth of this class is really poor. The NBA is getting out-spent by college programs, and it’s creating a weaker pool of talent than ever later in the draft.