Gianni Infantino lives to fight another day – for now.
Despite the continued, unprecedented backlash within and outside of FIFA to his ill-conceived and ultimately ill-fated FFE plan, the Swiss – at least on the surface – remains defiant.
In any other walk of life, he’d have packed his bags. Soccer governance, though, operates in an alternative reality.
Not willing to go of his accord, he clings on to power, emboldened to muddle through the biggest, self-made storm that has engulfed him and his organization in his 10-year tenure.
An apologetic statement this week and commitment to not letting history repeat itself has, though, done little to placate the intensifying scrutiny of his leadership.
With European soccer’s governing body, UEFA, doubling down on its threat of a boycott of FIFA competitions and battle lines being drawn up across the global footballing landscape, the question still looms: Is Infantino’s latest gambit a stay of execution, an attempted fightback or the start of a prolonged war of attrition?
Fragmented landscape
Prior to this summer’s World Cup, it was reported that more than 200 of the 211 national associations that make up FIFA had pledged their support to Infantino for his reelection next year.
And up until this point the 56-year-old has appeared Teflon.
Concerns surrounding his close ties with US President Donald Trump, outrage at exorbitant ticket prices and immigration policies at the World Cup through to still unanswered questions around the overturning of Folarin Balogun’s ban during the tournament all have been largely brushed under the carpet.
The fight over the plan to sell off parts of the World Cup and other signature FIFA events to private businesses has tested that bulletproof presidency. And while there’s since been an unrelenting, concerted effort by UEFA to oust Infantino, from a loss of confidence in his leadership to the threat of legal action against him and his associates, there’s not been the united front that had been anticipated when it comes to change.
UEFA commands a great deal of power and clout on and off the pitch, but it’s struggling to shake off the perception of this being another attempted European coup.
Put simply, it cannot fight this battle alone.
Not only does it need global support to maintain its momentum, it too needs to offer a genuine alternative to the status quo.
Herein lies the problem.
Power strongholds
Outside of Europe, so far only Jordan – one of a handful of countries not to have signed a letter of support for Infantino’s reelection prior to this crisis – has publicly called for Infantino’s resignation.
North and Central America and Caribbean governing body CONCACAF and the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) have both criticized the FIFA president and rejected the plan.
Yet several countries within both confederations have already publicly pledged their loyalty to Infantino, while some are in no rush to commit either way.
In a game of fine margins, which way those nations swing could prove crucial.
And it’s not just the splitting of votes within confederations where Infantino is pinning his hopes of preserving his position.
Like that of his predecessors, João Havelange and Sepp Blatter, Infantino is seeking to rally his core supporters in his traditional power base of Africa.
Less wealthy associations within and outside the confederation have relied heavily on FIFA funds via Infantino’s FIFA Forward program, the precursor to FFE, which was introduced by him in 2016.
South America’s CONMEBOL has already said it won’t upset the apple cart as it continues its push for a 64-team World Cup in 2030.
Meanwhile, the executive committee of the smallest and least wealthy regional confederation, Oceania (OFC), will meet Wednesday to discuss its approach.
Numbers game
Although severely weakened, Infantino still has his allies and, as it stands, the belief that he has the requisite votes needed to win March’s presidential election.
And, at least for now, despite the threat of revolt, internal pressure within FIFA appears to have abated.
While some senior figures have spoken out, others have fallen in line.
To date, Carlos Cordeiro, formerly Infantino’s senior advisor, is the only high-profile official to have quit.
The ball, therefore, is in UEFA’s court as to what to do next.
It has several options at its disposal but which one it takes could prove crucial in determining the trajectory of how this saga unfolds.
The problem, though, is none of the routes is easily achievable.
Short term it could look to initiate an Extraordinary Congress and by default a no-confidence vote in Infantino.
UEFA has the numbers to trigger such an action but there’s no guarantee of success.
A forcing of an emergency meeting of the FIFA Council is also an avenue but again getting the necessary support may prove too difficult.
All indicators, therefore, point toward a challenger being put up to face Infantino in March’s election – the first time an election would be contested since Infantino himself succeeded the discredited Sepp Blatter in 2016.
CONCACAF president Victor Montagliani is widely viewed as the most likely rival if enough votes can be generated.
The Canadian, though, is yet to publicly comment on the privatization plan fallout or provide an alternative vision to that presented by Infantino.
Candidates have until November 18 to put their names forward for the contest.
Nuclear option
This, though, buys Infantino time to ride out the storm, regroup and rebuild.
He could offer a route for reform, open up FIFA’s cash reserves or dangle the carrot of new funding. All options are on the table.
The question that could cut through all of this is whether UEFA follows through with its threat of a boycott and non-cooperation, both of which could make FIFA ungovernable for Infantino.
Not satisfied by Infantino’s walkback, it is a lever that Europe can pull – albeit a dangerous one at the same time.
History hasn’t always looked kindly on such a move.
A first major test of UEFA’s will is whether its national teams participate in next month’s U-20 Women’s World Cup in Poland.
Six nations, including the host, are set to compete although UEFA is yet to publicly confirm how it intends to navigate this.
CNN has approached FIFA and Poland’s FA for comment.
Time is of the essence and the hopes and dreams of players in the balance.
Beyond the pitch, tetchiness from FIFA’s lucrative sponsors amid the constant negative publicity could also prove telling.
For now, though, soccer’s civil war appears to be heading toward an entrenched standoff of ideas and values.
And, as ever, it rests on the game’s true custodians – the fans and players – to keep the very soul of the game alive and intact.
