As last season’s Golden Boot winner, Lautaro Martinez, is still seeking his first goal of the season, the race for the league’s top scorer appears to be shaping up similarly.
Marcus Thurman and Mateo Retegui lead the way with four goals coming into the weekend’s fixtures. However, Lautaro Martinez still features highly in the betting and will fancy his chances of claiming the award he secured with 24 goals last season.
Serie A Top Scorer Market
Odds
Lautaro Martinez
5.50
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Lautaro Martinez has just one goal in his last 15 league appearances for Inter, but he is often a streaky striker. In the last year, the Argentine averaged 3.73 shots per 90 minutes played and has a non-penalty xG of 0.51 per 90.
Martinez also top-scored the Copa America as he scored five goals to help Argentina lift the trophy. However, the striker hasn’t been getting himself in the right positions as Inter have stuttered at the start of this campaign. Lautaro has an xG of just 1.08 in his four appearances.
The Argentine is a streaky striker prone to dipping in and out of goalscoring form. He netted eight goals in eight Serie A appearances at the start of 2024. Martinez hopes that this weekend’s clash with Udinese signals the start of another purple patch.
Marcus Thuram is Inter’s other starting forward and he has enjoyed more success than Lautaro Martinez thus far. He has netted four league goals, overperforming his xG of 2.94.
The Frenchman’s explosive movement and blistering pace enabled him to score 13 goals in Serie A last season, 11 fewer than his strike partner. He finished last term with an xG of 15.49, so he has displayed a more clinical side in the early stages of this campaign.
Inter won last season’s Scudetto at a canter. They have made a slow start this time around, picking up eight points from their opening five matches, but are poised to improve and both Thuram and Martinez should benefit as a result.
Artem Dovbyk made the switch from Girona to Roma in the summer. The striker finished as La Liga’s top scorer, surpassing players like Alexander Sorloth and Robert Lewandowski. He finished the season with an xG of 22.05, the highest in Spain’s top flight.
The Ukrainian endured a slow start as Roma faltered under Daniele De Rossi, but recent signs have been encouraging. I Giallorossi won their first game under Ivan Juric 3-0 and Dovbyk was able to find the net, taking his tally to two goals for the season. Artem also squandered a big chance, but his confidence is growing, having scored in his last two league outings.
Dovbyk is the biggest xG underperformer in Serie A so far this season. He has shown he can be clinical at Girona, but Roma are unlikely to create as many chances as Inter going forward.
Mateo Retegui is tied with Marcus Thuram on four goals at this early stage, which is in line with his xG of 3.87. However, the longer-term data suggests that the Atalanta forward will fall away in the race for the Golden Boot.
Retegui has a non-penalty xG of just 0.26 per 90 minutes played in the last 12 months, which means he ranks in the 14th percentile when compared to all forwards across Europe’s top five leagues. He scored just seven goals in 29 league appearances last season.