Why Big Value Still Exists in Betting Against the EPL’s Newly-Promoted Sides

Why Big Value Still Exists in Betting Against the EPL’s Newly Promoted Sides

All three newly-promoted teams have struggled to compete in the 2024/25 Premier League. They are already trailing behind the rest of the bottom half.

Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest Market

Odds

Leicester City vs Manchester United Market

Odds

Southampton vs Wolves Market

Odds

Ipswich

3.75

Leicester

4.50

Southampton

3.80

Draw

3.30

Draw

3.60

Draw

3.30

Nottingham Forest

2.00

Manchester United

1.80

Wolves

2.05

Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

This year’s Premier League has been more fiercely competitive and unpredictable than ever. Mid-table sides have strengthened their squads and are a much tougher proposition for the top six each week.

Unfortunately, this makes life even harder for the division’s newly-promoted sides to survive. Last season, the three sides promoted from the EFL Championship went straight back down.

Fulham, AFC Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest defied the odds in 2022/23 to avoid relegation. However, it’s clear the gulf between bottom-half Premier League teams and top Championship clubs is wider than ever.

Despite an encouraging start to the season for both Ipswich Town and Leicester City, neither side has managed to build any momentum.

Leicester have lost 12 of their last 13 Premier League games, and their only cause for celebration was an away win at an injury-hit Tottenham. 

Meanwhile, Ipswich have been highly competitive in most games this season but have frequently fallen short in tight encounters. 

As for Southampton, their season has been a disaster from the outset. With just nine points from 28 games, the Saints are now 14 points adrift of safety with ten games still to play.

With Ipswich losing five of their last six games, Leicester dropping their last five straight games, and Southampton losing five of their last six games, betting against the bottom three each week has proven to be profitable in the last couple of months.

This weekend could be another great opportunity to bet against all three newly-promoted sides.

Ipswich entertain third-placed Nottingham Forest at Portman Road. The Tractor Boys have won only once in front of their own fans so far this season. Despite this, Nuno Espirito Santo’s Forest are still priced as long as evens to win in Suffolk.

Although Forest’s away form (1.62 points per game) is not quite as impressive as their home form (2.00 points per game), they will be confident after defeating Manchester City at The City Ground last week.

Leicester host Manchester United at the King Power Stadium on Sunday afternoon. With the Foxes averaging 0.64 points per game at home and United undefeated in three games, Ruben Amorim’s men should be able to break down City’s defence.

Remarkably, Leicester have failed to score in ten of their last 13 league games. They are currently on a five-game goalless streak, which heaps further pressure on their backline to try and keep clean sheets – something they have failed to achieve since 5th October.

Southampton may just have the best chance of all three teams to get a result this weekend. They welcome fourth-bottom Wolverhampton Wanderers to St Mary’s on Saturday.

Wolves will once again be without the suspended Matheus Cunha, although the Brazilian’s absence wasn’t overly felt in Wanderers’ 1-1 draw with Everton last weekend. In fact, some have suggested their team cohesion was better without being overly reliant on Cunha.

Despite Cunha’s suspension, it’s impossible to have any confidence in backing Southampton to win. They have conceded 68 goals in 28 games and lost 11 of their 13 home fixtures this term.

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