Just one point separates Real and Atletico in La Liga this season. Will there be much to separate them in their two-legged UCL last 16 tie?
Champions League Outright Market
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La Liga Outright Market
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Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
When Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid were paired for the last 16 of this season’s UEFA Champions League, many were incredibly excited about the prospect – and justifiably so.
There has been precious little to separate the two sides in recent games, with the city rivals drawing 1-1 in each of their last three La Liga meetings. Prior to this, they shared a six-goal thriller in the Copa del Rey last January, which was preceded by an eight-goal epic in the Supercopa de Espana.
Atleti may have lost both of those cup ties, but Diego Simeone’s men are unbeaten in their last five La Liga meetings. In fact, they were the last team to win a Madrid derby back in September 2023.
Atletico secured a 1-1 draw in their recent Madrid derby at the Bernabeu on 8th February. Simeone’s men led 1-0 at the interval, but Kylian Mbappe struck a second-half equaliser to share the spoils.
In Europe, Atletico won six of their eight league phase games in the Champions League. Despite being known for their defensive approach, they ended the phase as the joint-third top scorers out of all 36 clubs.
As for Real, they lost three of the eight league phase games and had to come through the play-offs against Manchester City. They comfortably defeated City, but there is no doubt that Pep Guardiola’s team are not the force they once were.
Atletico will be a much tougher proposition, especially with the crucial second leg being played at Atleti’s Riyadh Air Metropolitano stadium.
Simeone’s managerial record against Real Madrid is one of the main reasons why sportsbooks are favouring Real to advance to the quarter-finals of the UCL.
He has averaged just 1.13 points per game against Real across all competitions. In 45 games against Real, his team lost 18 and won only 12.
However, it’s important to go by recent form, and their latest showings against Real suggest they are more durable and dangerous this season. Atletico aren’t a club that’s used to battling on continental and domestic fronts too often. That is why we believe if they do manage to knock out Real in the UCL, this could actually have a negative effect on their La Liga title hopes.
The La Liga fixture list hasn’t been kind to Diego Simeone’s men in and around their two-legged UCL tie with Real. Before the first leg, they will host fourth-place Athletic Bilbao, who have averaged two points per game in their last eight games and sit just five points behind Atleti.
In between the first and second leg, they travel to a Getafe side that have been averaging 1.75 points per game in their last eight games, making them the form team of the bottom half.
After the second leg, Atleti host current league leaders, Barcelona, before a trip to an Espanyol side that have lost only three times at home.
When you put all of the above together, it’s clear Atletico’s La Liga title chances depend on how hard they try to knock Real out of the UCL.
If Atletico are well beaten in the first leg, they may decide to prioritise the league and their games with Getafe and Barcelona. A positive result in the first leg could see them shift their focus towards the UCL.
Either way, we don’t think the time is right to back Atletico in the La Liga outright market due to the multiple hurdles in front of them at present.
If anything, it could be a good time to back Barcelona in the La Liga outright market. They face Benfica in the UCL last 16, a team they have only lost to once in European competition.
Upcoming games against an out-of-form Real Sociedad, Osasuna and Girona also give Barca a great chance to strengthen their position at the top of the table.