Liverpool should win the match against West Ham by a 1-3 scoreline.
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Premier League leaders Liverpool travel to the capital with a seven-point lead over Chelsea and a game in hand. Arne Slot’s Reds made a strong comeback from a 0-1 deficit on Boxing Day to ensure they enter 2025 as this season’s best, with half of the season behind us.
West Ham’s new manager certainly hasn’t experienced similar success in the same timeframe. December was seen as crucial for Julien Lopetegui’s long term future in London. Although December wasn’t particularly exciting for Hammers fans, with just six goals scored in five games, the 3-1 loss to Leicester at the start of the month was their only loss.
As expected from a team at the top of the league, Liverpool’s overall form coming into this tie is impressive. Arne Slot’s Liverpool have lost just one game all season. They are unbeaten away from home in the Premier League, with no team returning more points on the road than Liverpool.
The probable lineup for West Ham in the 4-1-4-1.
Areola; Wan-Bissaka, Todibo, Kilman, Emerson; Alvarez, Soucek; Bowen, Soler, Kudus; Fullkrug.
The probable lineup for Liverpool in the 4-3-2-1.
Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Gomez, Van Dijk, Robertson; Mac Allister, Gravenberch; Salah, Jones, Jota; Diaz
Focusing on West Ham’s form in December is key when making West Ham vs Liverpool predictions. Heading into the first game of December, West Ham were six points off the relegation zone, having conceded 1.84 goals per 90 across 13 matches. It was bleak, and Lopetegui was in trouble.
After a poor defeat to Leicester, West Ham have navigated fixtures against Wolves, Bournemouth, Brighton and Southampton without dropping points. Welcoming Liverpool to the London Stadium is a much tougher test, but the data suggests they might be able to trouble The Reds. West Ham have posted an expected goals total of 1.0 xG or more in each of their previous six fixtures.
With players like Jarrod Bowen, Mohamed Kudus, Crysencio Summerville, and Lucas Paqueta, West Ham clearly have the attacking talent to trouble teams in the final third. However, it’s the other end of the pitch where the real issues arise. With 31.4 xGA after 18 matches, their defensive record is the third-worst in the division. Only Southampton, Leicester City and Ipswich, the three promoted clubs, have performed worse defensively.
Bookmakers wouldn’t be surprised if Liverpool, priced as short as 1.40, prove too strong for West Ham and win the game as heavy favourites. Yet, the odds of 1.40 are quite restrictive. However, we can increase the odds to 2.50 by adding “Both Teams To Score”. Seven of West Ham’s nine home games have overseen BTTS this season. Brentford and Fulham are the only two teams with a better strike rate than the Hammers in terms of both teams scoring.
West Ham have consistently conceded high-quality chances against teams like Manchester City (3.0 xGA), Tottenham (1.9 xGA), Aston Villa (2.0 xGA), Chelsea (2.2 xGA) and Newcastle (1.6 xGA). If this trend continues, Liverpool’s world-class forward will likely profit.
Mohamed Salah is having another season to remember. The Egyptian winger on Liverpool’s right side has scored 16 goals and provided 11 assists in just 17 matches. In the match against Spurs, he climbed to fourth place in Liverpool’s all-time goalscoring charts with 229 goals – a total he increased in the recent game against Leicester. Only seven players have scored more goals in Premier League history. To put this into perspective, he’s just two goals behind Arsenal legend Thierry Henry (175 goals).
Salah became the first player to reach double figures for both goals and assists before Christmas this season. His performances are at such a level right now that his goalscorer odds have to be considered in any Premier League game around evens.
We have already highlighted West Ham’s defensive struggles. The fixtures against the better teams in the division have exposed weaknesses that might continue against the best team in the division. It’s also worth noting that this Liverpool team beat West Ham 5-1 in the EFL Cup at the end of September.
In that cup meeting between the two new managers, Liverpool went into half-time at 1-1 after conceding the first goal. The second half was a different story, with the Reds securing a win after the interval. We saw something similar at Anfield on Boxing Day, when Liverpool dominated Leicester in the second half.
Given the packed December fixture list, we could witness slower starts to games than usual. Four of Liverpool’s eight away games have seen them head into half-time without a win. Two of those matches have resulted in successful bets for the Draw/Liverpool Half-time/full-time market.
In a match without much value, betting on Liverpool to be level at half-time and win at full-time offers an opportunity to support the visitors at a big price. This aligns with our West Ham vs Liverpool predictions.