Real Sociedad have emerged as one of Europe’s top defensive teams, boasting 11 clean sheets in La Liga so far.
La Liga: Top Four Finish
Odds
Real Sociedad
Villareal
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Currently seventh in the table, Real Sociedad sit eight points behind Athletic Club, following their 1-0 win over Villarreal last weekend.
Despite Villarreal and Mallorca being two points ahead and being level with Girona, bookmakers still rank Real Sociedad as second favorites, behind Athletic, to finish fourth.
Last season, they concluded in sixth place, trailing Atletico Madrid by 16 points, a gap partly due to their successful Champions League run to the Round of 16, for only the second time in history.
Guided by experienced manager Imanol Alguacil, who has over 160 appearances for the club and has managed them since 2019/2020, Sociedad have never finished below sixth during his tenure.
In the 2022/2023 season, their solid defense secured them fourth place, conceding just 35 goals, the third best record in La Liga.
Although they had a slow start this season, winning only once in their first seven games after selling key players Robin Le Normand and Mikel Merino, Real Sociedad have found their form since September.
They’ve dropped only 13 points, defeating Barcelona and Girona, and holding Atletico to a 1-1 draw.
Since matchday eight, Real Sociedad sit third in the table with 23 points, just three shy of Real Madrid, averaging 1.92 points per game. During this period, they conceded only six goals and achieved seven clean sheets. In comparison, Villarreal and Mallorca have conceded 19 and eight more goals respectively than Alguacil’s side.
Under Alguacil, Real Sociedad excelled in discipline and high energy, but clean sheets don’t guarantee a top-four finish in La Liga.
Last season, both Athletic Bilbao and Real Sociedad missed out on Champions League qualification, despite being second and fourth in clean sheets. Similarly, in 2022/2023, Betis, Cádiz, Getafe, and Mallorca matched Atletico Madrid’s 13 clean sheets, but finished well beyond fourth.
In La Liga, which currently has the lowest-scoring among Europe’s top five leagues at 2.59 goals per game, prolific attacks are crucial—something Sociedad lacks.
Their xG (expected goals) data suggest they should have scored 6.78 more goals, making them the second-worst in La Liga, just behind Betis, who are short by 11 goals.
Our projections give Real Sociedad just a 6.9% chance of a top-four finish, much lower than the 16.7% implied by current 6.00 odds. Is this a bet worth risking?
With a projected 41.2 goals for the season, Sociedad’s attack may rank 11th, relying on narrow 1-0 or 2-0 wins in the remainder of the season. Sitting 13th in the home table and 9th by expected points, Real Sociedad need significant improvement for a serious challenge.
Villarreal, however, are underperforming by trailing expected points by five, making them potential outsiders. Unlike Real Sociedad and Athletic playing in the Europa League, Villarreal’s lack of European commitments offers them an advantage.
However, Marcelino’s men have conceded 31 goals, the second most, tying with strugglers Espanyol and Alavés. However, underlying data suggests they should have conceded 26 goals, slightly more than Barcelona.
As Villarreal’s performance levels out, they could surpass Sociedad by three points but still end up in fifth place, just behind Athletic Bilbao. Villarreal’s odds at 6.00, implying a 16.7% probability, align with our projection’s 17.0% chance of a top-four finish.
Despite Real Sociedad’s strong defence and recent victory over Villarreal, a bet on El Submarino Amarillo for fourth place seems safer.