Matchday 13 sees league leaders Napoli host a Roma side that have been dismal away from home, while second-placed Atalanta travel to Parma aiming to keep up the pressure on Antonio Conte’s men. This week’s five Serie A predictions draw on the latest form, data and expert knowledge to help you uncover value bets.
AC Milan currently sit just one place below Juventus in the Serie A standings. However, six points separate the Rossoneri from Juve, while the top six are separated by only two points. Milan have been inconsistent on the road, but their home form has been good, averaging two points per game. They’ve conceded just 0.80 goals per game at the San Siro.
Juventus have conceded the same number of goals away from Turin, while averaging 2.20 points per game on their travels. This points to a tight clash on Saturday. Interestingly, Juve have doubled their xG away from home, averaging 2.40 goals scored to their 1.24 xG. This suggests their goal output may not be sustainable over the course of the season, and Milan’s defence will be eager to put that to the test this weekend.
This match-up is unlikely to set the pulses racing. Both Genoa and Cagliari are hovering dangerously close to the relegation zone. Genoa are yet to secure a home win this season, but they have drawn four of their seven matches at home.
Cagliari have secured only two wins in 12 games, with only one of them coming away from Sardinia. Genoa have allowed the opposition to score first in 86% of their home games, while Cagliari have done so in 80% of their away games. That is why we expect a cagey encounter, with neither side able to take the initiative.
Third-placed Fiorentina are dining at the top table of Italian football once again. With 25 points from 12 games, I Viola are brimming with confidence as they travel to fifth-bottom Como this weekend. Como have one home win to their name, two draws, and just a single loss, suggesting Fiorentina won’t have it all their way.
Nevertheless, Fiorentina are in superb form, recently brushing aside Torino and Genoa 1-0 on the road, along with a 6-0 away hammering of bottom-placed Lecce. Como were thrashed 5-1 at home to Lazio before the international break, which likely took a toll on their confidence.
Antonio Conte’s revitalised Napoli are a much stronger force this season. They are well-positioned to battle for a second Scudetto in three years. With four wins and one defeat in five games, their home form has been central to their rise to the top of Serie A.
On the other hand, AS Roma’s struggles away from home have been particularly concerning. They have failed to win a single away game this season, picking up just three points in five matches. Roma’s recent 5-1 loss at Fiorentina provides a useful benchmark, since Napoli are arguably a level above I Viola.
Empoli and Udinese currently sit comfortably in mid-table, with 15 and 16 points respectively from 12 Serie A games. While neither side seems likely to challenge for European qualification places, they are also not at risk of getting caught in a relegation battle.
Nevertheless, there’s little to excite about either side at present. Empoli have scored just 0.17 goals per game at home, and Udinese have scored just 1.17 goals per game away. Looking at recent head-to-head history, only five goals have been scored in their last four meetings. All of this points towards a likely low-scoring stalemate.
Our Serie A predictions for Matchweek 13 include wins for league leaders Napoli and red-hot Fiorentina. Meanwhile, we anticipate a hat-trick of draws between Milan and Juventus, Empoli and Udinese, as well as Genoa and Cagliari.
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