We have looked at refereeing statistics from the last couple of seasons, along with team trends, to identify the five best card wagers for this weekend’s schedule.
Market
Odds
Tottenham vs West Ham: Rodrigo Bentancur to be shown a card
Ipswich vs Everton: Over 2.5 Ipswich cards
Manchester United vs Brentford: Manchester United to be shown the most cards
Wolves vs Manchester City: Wolves -1 card handicap
Liverpool vs Chelsea: Over 5.5 total cards
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Andy Madley has been one of the Premier League’s more lenient referees since the start of last season, but Madley has shown five cards in two of his five matches so far this season.
This London derby has produced 10 total cards over the last 180 minutes of action. Rodrigo Bentancur already has three yellow cards to his name this season.
Playing at the base of the Spurs midfield, Bentancur will inevitably be left exposed in transition against West Ham’s fast-paced attack. With the Hammers ranking fifth in dribbles per game, their forwards have the ability to draw fouls from Bentancur, who may need to make cynical fouls to stop counter-attacks.
Split by one point just above the relegation zone and with a combined nine points in 14 matches, this is bound to be a combative contest. Ipswich have an excellent opportunity to land their first win of the season.
Only four teams commit more fouls than Ipswich, while Everton rank third in total tackles. Michael Oliver has shown 36 total cards in his first six Premier League matches this season, including 15 over his last two matches.
Cards have been surprisingly rare in Everton’s matches thus far, which puts us off going with over 4.5 cards. Instead, we are backing Ipswich to receive over 2.5 cards – they have averaged 2.86 per match.
Chelsea are the only team to be shown more cards than Manchester United this season. Sam Barrott has proven to be one of the stricter referees in the Premier League, brandishing 6.4 yellows per match.
Brentford have been shown the joint-fewest cards this season. They commit the fewest fouls per match, while Manchester United make the most tackles.
Everything points towards United getting more cards. Their status as home favourites provides great value here.
Wolves commit more fouls than any other Premier League team. They have the fourth-highest number of yellow cards to their name thus far and face a Manchester City team which will dominate possession.
City consistently rank among the bottom two or three in cards per match.
Chris Kavanagh has shown 32 total cards in five matches this season. In each of his last three matches, one team has had at least two more cards than their opponent.
That’s the kind of outcome we anticipate here, with Wolves forced to absorb pressure. This card handicap is a no-brainer given the card counts of these two teams.
Chelsea receive the highest number of cards per match in the Premier League. There have been over 5.5 total cards in four of their seven matches so far, and their average of seven total cards is the second-highest in the league.
John Brooks showed six total cards during Malta and Moldova’s clash in the international break. He booked seven players when Brighton faced Wolves in the League Cup. Earlier this season, he went to his notebook eight times in Plymouth and Sunderland’s fiery Championship clash.
The last two meetings between these sides cleared this line. We expect a competitive 90 minutes at Anfield – and a red card wouldn’t be a surprise.