Season sees title favourites Liverpool host relegation-threatened Ipswich. Meanwhile, in-form sides AFC Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest battle on the south coast. Fast-improving Manchester City also host fourth-placed Chelsea on Saturday evening. This week’s five Premier League predictions are based on the latest form, data and expert knowledge to help you uncover value bets.
Southampton have lost eight of their ten home games so far this season. With the Saints sitting ten points adrift of safety, relegation already appears to be certain. Newcastle have won six of their last seven Premier League games, with their winning run ending abruptly by in-form AFC Bournemouth last weekend.
Nevertheless, Eddie Howe’s Magpies should have enough firepower to overwhelm Ivan Juric’s struggling Saints. United have scored 1.73 goals per away game so far this term. United scoring first could spell disaster for Southampton. Newcastle have successfully defended leads 83% of the time this season, with their points per away game standing at 2.33 when scoring first.
Manchester City are back in top form as seen by their 6-0 demolition of Ipswich. They have won three of their last four Premier League games, scoring 12 goals in the process. As for Saturday’s opponents, Chelsea, Enzo Maresca’s men have secured only one win in six games. City go into the game knowing a win will leapfrog them over their West London opponents.
It’s difficult to back Chelsea right now, as they have shown major inconsistency in recent weeks. Even in their 3-1 home win over Wolves on Monday night, the Blues were under pressure during spells of the game. Maresca’s young team will struggle against the poise and experience of Guardiola’s troops, who have averaged two points per home game this season.
It’s been a fairytale season so far for Nottingham Forest. With just four defeats and 13 wins in 22 games, Nuno Espirito Santo’s men are one of Liverpool’s main rivals for the title right now. AFC Bournemouth are outperforming expectations too. They are currently sitting in seventh, just three points shy of fourth-placed Chelsea. Andoni Iraola’s men are undefeated in ten Premier League games.
Given Bournemouth’s lengthy unbeaten run, it’s clear the Dorset side will be a tough nut for Forest to crack. The Cherries have defeated several big clubs at the Vitality Stadium this season, namely Manchester City, Arsenal and Tottenham, so Forest will need to be on their guard. The hosts have lost just twice on home soil, while Forest have lost twice away from The City Ground. All of this points to a hard-fought draw.
Unai Emery’s Aston Villa have lost just once in 11 home games at Villa Park. Sunday’s opponents, West Ham, have averaged just 1.20 points per away game this season. With the Hammers struggling for firepower due to injuries to the likes of Jarrod Bowen, Michail Antonio and Niclas Fullkrug, it’s a difficult situation for the new boss, Graham Potter, to come into.
With 43 assists and 66 goals in 223 appearances for West Ham, Bowen has been a real talisman for United in the last five years. His current absence leaves their front line lacking in both work rate and tenacity. Aston Villa have averaged two points per home game this term and have lost just once in their last six games. They have also defeated the Hammers in an FA Cup 3rd Round tie recently, and another win at Villa Park seems likely.
Marco Silva’s Fulham have drawn 5 of their 11 home games this season, accounting for almost half of their matches. Indeed, they have drawn six of their last ten league fixtures. Meanwhile, Manchester United have averaged just one point per game away from Old Trafford.
Ruben Amorim has been critical of his United players in the aftermath of their 3-1 home defeat to Brighton. The Portuguese hopes to get a positive reaction from the squad at Craven Cottage. Fulham have been behind in just 19% of their home games. Despite United’s poor away record, they have only trailed in 18% of their away games. That’s why a draw looks the most favourable selection here.
Our Premier League predictions for Matchday 23 include home wins for Aston Villa and Manchester City, while Newcastle United may struggle to get past bottom-placed Southampton at St. Mary’s. We also find it difficult to pick a winner between in-form AFC Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest at the Vitality Stadium. Meanwhile, draw specialists Fulham may have to settle for yet another point against Manchester United.
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