AFC Bournemouth’s season has been hit hard by new injuries to frontline strikers, Evanilson and Enes Unal. Both will be sidelined for some time, leaving the Cherries desperate for fresh firepower in the January transfer window. In the meantime, they travel to fourth-placed Chelsea on Wednesday. Chelsea have won 11 of their last 17 meetings.
Normally, we would expect Bournemouth to offer strong resistance with a first-choice attack. They have scored 1.80 goals per away game to date, but this will surely decrease in the coming weeks. With the Cherries playing an intense, front-foot style both at home and away, this should play neatly into Chelsea’s hands, who prefer to hit teams fast on the break.
Brentford’s home form has been their primary source of points so far this season. The Bees still average 2.20 points per home game. However, they have lost their last two home games and have amassed just four points from their last five games.
Manchester City, their opponents on Wednesday, travel to West London with fresh confidence following back-to-back victories. Pep Guardiola’s men are unbeaten post-Christmas and will need a lengthy winning run to rebuild their title charge. City have won their last three competitive meetings with Brentford, although the Bees have taken the lead in four of their last five match-ups. We expect City to continue revitalising their season with another hard-fought three points.
West Ham’s home form has been a major cause for concern this season. Their home form – averaging just 1.10 points per game – is one of the main reasons why Julen Lopetegui was fired this week, with Graham Potter appointed as the Spaniard’s successor. Potter will be eager to implement a more fluid and intense style of play with the Hammers’ squad, and a London derby against Fulham feels like a good place to start.
Fulham have lost just four games this season, drawing almost half (9) of their 20 league games. Although the Cottagers are proving tough to beat, they have only won three of their nine away games. With the Hammers keen to impress their new boss, we expect United to come out strong. However, four of their last five meetings have featured two goals or fewer. With United averaging just 1.30 goals scored per home game, we don’t envisage a high-scoring affair next week either. A competitive draw seems like the most likely outcome.
Newcastle United have stormed into fifth place in the table after five successive league victories. The Magpies have conceded just one goal in those five wins, moving to within a point of the top four. On Thursday, Eddie Howe’s men entertain a Wolves side with the poorest defensive record in the division, having conceded 45 in 20 games.
Newcastle have the fourth-best defensive record and concede just 0.89 goals per game at St. James’ Park. Wolves’ demoralising home loss to Nottingham Forest on Monday leaves them narrowly above the relegation zone on goal difference. Wolves have been outperforming their xG away from Molineux, scoring 1.70 goals per away game compared to their 1.22 xG. Even with Matheus Cunha returning from suspension, we expect Newcastle to control the game, especially if they score first – they average 2.67 points per game when breaking the deadlock.
Kieran McKenna’s Ipswich Town were moments away from securing all three points at Fulham last weekend. It was an encouraging display once again, considering Fulham have lost just four times all season. Ipswich’s last home game saw them stun Chelsea to beat the Blues 2-0. A similar display against Fabian Hurzeler’s faltering Brighton side should guarantee they avoid defeat at the very least.
Albion have drawn half of their league games so far this season. They remain hard to beat but lack the finishing touch to close out matches in the final third and are winless in eight games. Joao Pedro’s injury is a new worry for Hurzeler, which could further limit Brighton’s attacking options. Ipswich have spent 44% of their home games level in matches, suggesting they are largely competitive at Portman Road. With Albion potentially travelling without Pedro as well as Danny Welbeck, Hurzeler may be prepared to settle for an 11th draw of the campaign.
Our Premier League predictions for Matchday 21 include home wins for Newcastle United and Chelsea, along with a third successive league win for Manchester City at a stuttering Brentford. New West Ham boss, Graham Potter, should get a point in his first game in charge against Fulham. Meanwhile, Ipswich should do enough to draw with Fabian Hurzeler’s underperforming Brighton.
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