The festive fixtures come thick and fast so we’ve assessed the teams who have performed best over this period over the past five seasons to identify some betting angles.
Liverpool and Manchester City have fared well in December, both recording the same number of wins. Bournemouth have been the most profitable team for punters despite winning less than half of their matches. The data doesn’t bode well for Brentford or Brighton.
Newcastle vs Liverpool – Liverpool to Win
Bournemouth vs Tottenham – Bournemouth to Win
Ipswich vs Crystal Palace – Draw
Fulham vs Brighton – Fulham to Win & BTTS
Leicester vs West Ham – BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
December marks a major shift in the football calendar. The Premier League’s busy festive period is widely known with teams expected to play 7-8 league matches in the next five weeks. But how has this affected the betting markets?
Bettors would have had a tough time in the goals market. Both backing over and under the 2.5 goals line in all December matches in the past five seasons would have lost.
However, it’s a different story backing teams to share the points in the 1X2 market. Flat one-point staking on a draw every game would have resulted in a profit of 12.04 points. This is a stark contrast to November’s data. Punters would have lost a whopping 75.41 points backing every match to end in a draw in November over the past five seasons (before this one).
Let’s take a closer look at some of the teams.
Arne Slot’s side are the odds-on favourites to win the title after pulling clear of their rivals last month. Liverpool have recorded 18 wins in 25 Premier League matches in December. They will be delighted if they can perform to that level in the next month as they look to consolidate their position at the top.
They kick the month off against Manchester City, the other side who have won 18 matches in December, so we are waiting until their clash with Newcastle to seize the betting opportunity. Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 15 head-to-heads with the Magpies and have won the last six.
Eddie Howe’s side have lost two of their last three league games at St. James’s Park. Newcastle have also lost more matches in December than any other Premier League side over the past five seasons.
The Cherries have played 14 December matches in the Premier League over the past five seasons, winning five. Punters would have bagged 10.13 points profit by backing a single point on them to win each of their matches. Bournemouth could claim another memorable victory at the start of this month.
Andoni Iraola’s side host Tottenham on December 5th. Bournemouth have won three of their last four home matches, including an impressive 2-1 win over Manchester City. The Cherries have also won the xG battle in all six of their Premier League matches at the Vitality Stadium.
In contrast, Tottenham have generated more xG than their opponents in half of their away games and won just two of six. Both of those wins came in Manchester.
Crystal Palace have drawn 10 matches during the period analysed, more than any other side in the division. Draw backers would have landed a positive ROI of 47.6% if they had backed it on the 1×2 markets in all of the Eagles’ 26 matches in the past five Decembers.
Oliver Glasner’s side have also drawn three of their six away matches this season. Therefore, we are banking on their visit to Portman Road resulting in another.
This is Ipswich’s first season in the top flight since 2001, so they don’t feature in our data. However, they have drawn four of their last five home games in the Premier League.
Brighton have the lowest win percentage in December with 23% and the data suggests that this is down to an inability to keep a clean sheet. 68% of their matches over the sample period saw both teams score, more than any other side currently playing in the top tier of English football.
Fabian Huzeler’s side are 5th in the Premier League but we are backing them to fall short in their clash with Fulham. Incredibly, the Seagulls have failed to win any of their last eight matches against Fulham. However, Brighton have scored in all six league games on the road this season so both teams to find the net also appeals given the monthly data.
Both teams have scored in all six of Fulham’s games at Craven Cottage this season.
The Foxes sacked Steve Cooper despite being outside of the relegation zone. The search for a new manager is expected to conclude quickly with a busy period coming up and it is usually an entertaining month when Leicester are involved, 70% of their December games over the past five seasons have seen three goals or more.
Both teams have scored in five of Leicester’s six Premier League home matches so far this season and we should see more attacking impetus from the Foxes with a new man at the helm. Over 2.5 goals has landed in the last four meetings between these sides at the King Power Stadium. This is one of many trends for bettors to pay attention to in December.