Liverpool are the only team with a better defensive record and the only team to have lost fewer games than Nuno Espirito Santo’s ultra-competitive Forest.
Winner Without Manchester City
Winner Without Big Six
Top 4 Finish
Top 6 Finish
Top Half Finish
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
A home defeat to Newcastle ended Nottingham Forest’s three-match winning streak before the international break. They face an away trip to Arsenal next, followed by trips to Old Trafford and the Etihad Stadium at the start of December.
There’s a chance Forest will slide towards mid-table over the next month. However, there’s also a chance they pick up a result or two in that run, causing their odds for a top-six finish (or maybe even top four) to shorten drastically. Nuno Espirito Santo has already seen his side take five points from trips to the Amex, Anfield, and Stamford Bridge.
The Newcastle result could be seen as the end of a hot streak, but it could equally be viewed as an anomaly. Forest have the second-lowest expected goals against so far this season.
While their attack is below-average in its underlying metrics, they haven’t been riding an unsustainable goal-scoring run in this strong start. It has all been built on a steely defence and converting the few chances they create. They have scored 15 goals from 14.2 expected goals, which is a reasonable and sustainable return.
Between trips to the Emirates and the Etihad, Forest host struggling Ipswich, which should be a routine win.
Arsenal are dealing with a minor injury crisis and have lacked creativity at times this season. Ruben Amorim isn’t going to magically fix this flawed Manchester United team. Meanwhile, Manchester City are suffering their worst spell of the Guardiola era.
Forest’s schedule gets harder as the year progresses, but their results against Brighton, Chelsea, and Liverpool show they can frustrate supposedly superior opponents.
This has not been a fluke run from Nuno’s team. Matz Sels has been good rather than freakishly great between the sticks. Chris Wood’s eight goals from 4.95 expected goals have been vital, but it’s not out of the question that he could put together a 20-goal campaign. The New Zealander has had five seasons with double-digit Premier League goals, including 14 in 20 starts in 2023-24.
It might appear that Forest’s strong start to the season is merely a brief spell of success. Every season has an early overachiever that drops off around Christmas – perhaps that’s Forest in 2024-25.
However, there are signs this could be more than just a purple patch. Nuno will have the midfield duo of Ibrahim Sangaré and Danilo available at some point in the next few weeks, which will provide much-needed depth as the schedule intensifies.
While we aren’t suggesting Forest can replicate Leicester’s fairytale from nine years ago, they appear set to be competitive throughout the 2024-25 season. Their outright odds have already shortened, and prices will likely drop further if they manage to get a result at the Emirates against an out-of-form Arsenal.
It’s surprising they are as long as 2.20 for a top-half finish – that’s a great value option for those who are more cautious about Forest’s credentials.
Odds of 10.00 for a top-six placing are also appealing. Forest have better underlying numbers than Manchester United, Aston Villa, Brighton, and Newcastle. Tottenham’s expected metrics are strong, but Ange Postecoglou is under pressure, and their season could quickly spiral.
Forests have a real opportunity. The next few weeks are vital, but with the timing of these matches, they have a great chance to get a few more big results against top teams.