Manchester City should be expected to beat Newcastle 3-1.
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As Newcastle United prepare to host Manchester City at St James’ Park, anticipation is palpable. Both teams are on a mission, and the impending clash, which could shape their respective seasons, adds an extra layer of importance to the fixture.
For the Magpies, who are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League home games, a test against the reigning champions offers an opportunity to bounce back after the 3-1 defeat at the hands of Fulham.
Meanwhile, Pep Guardiola’s City march forward in their quest for yet another Premier League title after a high-intensity 2-2 draw against Arsenal.
John Stones’ 98th-minute equaliser extended the Citizens’ unbeaten run to 28 league games (W23 D5). Twenty-four of these matches occurred in 2024, marking the longest unbeaten Premier League run from the beginning of a calendar year since Chelsea’s 26-game streak in 2008.
The probable lineup for Newcastle in the “system of play.”
Newcastle (4-3-3): Pope; Livramento, Schar, Burn, Kelly; Guimaraes, Joelinton, Tonali; Barnes, Isak, Gordon.
The probable lineup for Manchester City in the “system of play.”
Manchester City (4-3-3): Ederson; Lewis, Ruben Dias, Stones, Akanji; Kovacic, Bernardo Silva, Gundogan, Grealish, Savinho; Haaland.
Manchester City are well-acquainted with the pressures of a title race.
Despite back-to-back draws in the Champions League against Inter Milan and against Arsenal, Guardiola’s men remain favourites to win their fifth Premier League title in a row.
However, their star-studded lineup will be missing Rodri, who picked up a knee injury last Sunday. An indispensable figure, the Euro 2024 winner acts as the anchor, ensuring seamless transitions from defence to attack.
His absence is palpable: City’s win rate plummets from 89% with him to 76% without.
His ball recovery skills and metronomic passing—nearly 2,000 passes more than any other Premier League player—are pivotal.
Losing the Spaniard, touted for the Ballon d’Or, could significantly undermine City’s domestic and European ambitions.
Newcastle vs Manchester City Bet 1: Manchester City victory @ 1.60 with Stake.
City’s experience in navigating the rigours of a long season often sees them emerging unscathed from challenging fixtures.
However, playing Newcastle United away just three days before the second matchday in the Champions League presents a tough challenge for Pep’s men.
The Magpies have won just one of their last 33 Premier League games against Manchester City. However, they managed to find the back of the net in each of their last 21 Premier League home games—the longest ongoing home scoring streak of any side in the competition.
The hosts have been on a remarkable journey since Eddie Howe took over managerial duties.
From flirting with relegation to shoring up a spot in the upper echelons of the Premier League, Newcastle United have come a long way.
Their last home defeat came against Manchester City back in January, with Oscar Bobb scoring the winner in the 90th minute.
Newcastle vs Manchester City Bet 2: Manchester City To Score Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.40 with Stake.
Newcastle’s recent struggles were underscored by their first loss of the season at Fulham, a result many fans saw coming despite an ostensibly strong start.
In the past few weeks, players’ lack of focus and tactical missteps, particularly in midfield cohesion and creativity, have raised concerns.
Anthony Gordon’s poor form, Bruno Guimarães’s erratic performances, and questionable team selections further compound the problem.
In fact, Newcastle have faced more shots from high turnovers than any other side in the Premier League this season (15).
To regain momentum, Howe must find an optimal midfield combination, restore player confidence, and ensure tactical solidity. Interestingly, no other side has scored more goals so far thanks to balls recovered in the opposition half than Manchester City (2). City, as usual, will aim to dominate possession and control the game from the midfield onwards.
Guardiola will likely opt for a 4-3-3 or a 4-2-3-1 formation, ensuring they have plenty of options for ball circulation and attacking lines. City’s manager may also instruct his midfield to continue taking long-range shots, as they’ve done so far.
The current champions have scored more goals (4) and had more shots (40) from outside the box than any other side in the Premier League this season.
Recent records suggest that Newcastle face an ominous task, as Manchester City have won 12 of their last 13 away Premier League games (D1), including each of their last seven in a row by an aggregate scoreline of 21-3.
In their Premier League history, Manchester City have won more games (31), more away games (12), and scored more goals (101) against Newcastle than against any other opponent.
Newcastle vs Manchester City Bet 3: Over 2.5 Goals and Both teams to score – Yes @ 1.80 with Stake.