Matchday 7 has seen a flurry of late goals, with 16 scored in the final 15 minutes of games, including extra-time, in Europe’s top competition.
Champions League: Matchday 8
Late Goals Odds
Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Lille vs Feyenoord
Aston Villa vs Celtic
Bayern Munich vs Slovan Bratislava
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Thanks to the new format, and the need for teams to improve their goal difference, there has been an increase in late goals.
Moreover, teams are averaging 0.38 goals in the last 15 minutes of matches this season, with clubs like Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund both scoring and conceding one goal per game in the final quarter.
In addition, since the league phase started, there’s been an average of 3.23 goals per match, up from 3.08 in last season’s group stage. Furthermore, 61.11% of the 126 matches played so far breached the over 2.5-goal line, while 83 games saw no goals scored in the opening 15 minutes. These statistics suggest Matchday 8 might see a continuation of numerous late goals.
Notably, 24 of the 26 teams are still vying for their place in the final table, which makes goal difference more important than in previous editions of the competition. Due to complex permutations on the final matchday, teams might only finalize their strategies by half-time, possibly resulting in second-half surges.
In the last two Champions League seasons, the final matchday saw 11 and 16 goals scored in the last 15 minutes, respectively, under similar circumstances. The new format and increased competition for top 8 or playoff spots suggest the likelihood of late goals is even higher on Wednesday night.
Borussia Dortmund, currently 14th with 12 points, must secure a big win at home against Shakhtar Donetsk to aim for a top 8 finish and avoid the playoffs.
Last year’s finalist would need to score at least six goals, without conceding, to surpass Atalanta, should La Dea avoid defeat in Barcelona. Our projections give Dortmund a 6.0% chance of reaching the top 8, with the goal line for their game set at 3.41, the second-highest on Matchday 8. Therefore betting on late goals, after 76 minutes, may be wise.
Bayern Munich host Slovan Bratislava, needing a win by at least a three-goal margin to have a chance of overtaking six teams ahead of them. With Slovan Bratislava having conceded 24 goals, the worst defence in the competition, and Bayern having scored nine at home against Dinamo Zagreb this season, another goal-fest could be on the cards.
Other intriguing matchups include Lille vs Feyenoord and Aston Villa vs Celtic.
Lille and Feyenoord are tied on 13 points, and a win could see either team finish in the top 8.
Bruno Genesio’s men currently have a 21.3% chance, slightly higher than Feyenoord, according to our projections. The visitors’ matches have averaged 4.57 goals per game, with only Barcelona (5.29) and Red Star Belgrade (4.86) games featuring more.
There’s a 24.4% likelihood this match will end in a draw, second only to Young Boys vs Red Star Belgrade, which has a 28.6% chance. If the game is tied until the last 15 minutes, a late push could be crucial for either team.
Aston Villa, projected to score at least 2.34 goals against Celtic, have a 68.8% chance of qualifying directly without playoffs. Villa’s success depends on scoring enough goals to boost their +5 goal difference, especially with Leverkusen likely to win against Sparta Prague. This could drive Villa to pursue goals aggressively until the final whistle.