The last two match days of UEFA Nations League 2024-25 are setting the stage for an intense battle among strikers, who aim to write their names in the annals of the sport.
Whether it is Gyokeres’s consistent excellence, Aktürkoğlu’s tactical influence, or Haaland’s ruthlessness, each player brings unique attributes that contribute to their contention in this closely-fought race.
We analysed each top contender through the lenses of form, fixture favorability, and statistical predictions to forecast who may ultimately rise above the rest.
Goalscorer Market
Odds
Viktor Gyokeres vs Slovakia
Muhammed Kerem Aktürkoğlu vs Wales
Benjamin Sesko vs Norway
Erling Haaland vs Slovenia
Randal Kolo Muani vs Israel
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
At the forefront of the race is Viktor Gyokeres, the Swedish forward whose striking capabilities have shone brightly.
The Sporting Lisbon striker has notched up four goals in four matches, which adds to his impressive tally of 27 goals in 21 appearances for club and country.
Sweden’s excellent expected goals (xG) rate of 2.57 per game adds statistical weight to his potential.
Upcoming home games against Slovakia and Azerbaijan, who have higher expected goals against (xGA) of 1.02 and 1.42 in their away matches, offer Gyokeres a great chance to boost his stats.
Aktürkoğlu’s success is closely linked with Turkey’s sixth-best xG rate (1.86 per game) in the competition, setting the stage for a strong finale.
Turkey’s ties with Wales and Montenegro, both teams with defensive vulnerabilities, will offer Aktürkoğlu good opportunities to enhance his scoring record.
Craig Bellamy’s team managed a clean sheet in their previous match against Turkey, but they are slightly outperforming their expected goals against per 90 minutes by 0.42. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan, having conceded 11 goals, holds the second-worst defensive record in the entire Nations League, just behind Israel.
With 14 goals in 21 matches this season, just two shy of his total from 2022/2023, the big question is whether Aktürkoğlu can maintain this pace in the long run.
Sesko’s knack for converting chances is evident, with four goals this season, including a hat-trick against Kazakhstan. In the Nations League, he’s especially dependable, netting seven of his 15 senior international goals there.
Slovenia’s statistical balance in goals scored. (1.25 x game) versus their xG (1.23) hints at a coherent tactical execution. However, the upcoming fixture against Austria poses a tough challenge, given Austria’s strong home defensive record, as they boast the seventh best record for xGA, only 0.71 per 90 minutes.
Nonetheless, Sesko’s potential shines when Slovenia face Norway, as defensive gaps might give him more opportunities to score.
Razvan Marin’s standout transformation into an attacking midfielder role for Romania brings a new and exciting element to the discussion. Marin’s perfect record of turning four shots on target into goals underscores his efficiency, critical in equaling his goal tally of the last three Serie A seasons combined.
The Romanian’s upcoming matches against Kosovo and Cyprus are projected to be relatively lenient, given their frail defensive records, as they collectively conceded 14 goals.
Nevertheless, an analytical eye suggests Marin’s current scoring streak might be an outlier rather than a trend, given his xG (3.81) suggests potential regression.
No discussion on goalscorers is complete without mentioning Erling Haaland. With innate finishing capabilities, Haaland’s achievements in the Nations League are part of a larger narrative of international excellence.
Haaland’s exceptional goal-scoring form for Manchester City accentuates his potential to climb the Nations League rankings, where he shares the title of all-time top scorer with Serbia’s Aleksandar Mitrović, both having netted 15 goals in 13 matches.
Although Martin Ødegaard’s absence may influence tactical approaches, Haaland’s proven track record suggests that he will continue to carve out opportunities to excel.
France’s Randal Kolo Muani rounds off the list of notables. His rise in national team settings has been timely given Kylian Mbappe’s absence, allowing Muani to take the reins of France’s attack.
Despite limited playing time at PSG, his contributions for Les Blues (four goals in the last four games) signal a hidden potential, waiting to be fully unleashed.
France’s upcoming engagements with Israel, the competition’s worst defence, and Italy, provide a fertile platform for Muani to continue his scoring exploits.
His impressive non-penalty xG stats (0.56 per 90 minutes) indicate not just potential, but also a readiness to leave a lasting impact.
Finally, Harry Wilson stands as a key component within the Welsh attacking force, with his recent goal-scoring streak solidifying his status.
Wilson’s domestic success with Fulham, marked by decisive contributions, could translate into increased goal expectancy in international settings, thus bolstering his chances as a dark horse for the top goalscorer accolade.