Liverpool’s 37 shots in their weekend win over Brentford were the highest by an away team in the Premier League since the shot tallies were recorded.
Market
Odds
Crystal Palace vs Brentford – Over 16.5 Shots For Brentford
Southampton vs Newcastle – Over 17.5 Shots For Newcastle
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest – Over 15.5 Shots For Bournemouth
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Brentford have earned plenty of plaudits this season, but the majority of their good work has been done at the GTech Community Stadium. Even their home form has suffered in recent weeks, and it has seen them slump to 11th in the table. The stats point to a glaring issue in the Bees’ setup.
They have conceded an average of 18.77 shots per game in the league, which is more than any other side. They allowed Liverpool to have 37 attempts last weekend. In away matches, they concede an average of 21.4 shots, 2.8 more than any other side. Southampton are the only team in the Premier League to host Brentford this season and not hit the 18-shot mark.
Thomas Frank’s side’s confidence is dwindling after just one win in their last nine matches across all competitions. Therefore, we are backing Crystal Palace to rack up the shots when they host the Bees this weekend.
Southampton are resigned to losing their place in the top tier of English football after picking up just six points from their opening 22 matches. The Saints are on course to beat the record for the fewest number of points in a 38-game Premier League season. They face Newcastle this weekend, and there is a good chance to back the visitors in the betting.
The Saints have conceded the second-most shots in the division, with an average of 18.36 per game. This number actually increases to 19.7 if we only consider the data from their home matches.
Southampton have conceded 18 shots or more in seven of their 10 Premier League games at St. Mary’s this season. Everton, Ipswich and West Ham are the only teams who have failed to hit that mark. Ivan Juric’s team host Newcastle, who have lost just one of their last 10 across all competitions. Eddie Howe’s team will aim to put Southampton to the sword, and they are likely to rack up the shots in the process.
Andoni Iroala’s team keep improving with each passing match. Their last defeat came at home to Brighton on 23 November. Since then, they have remained unbeaten in 11 matches across all competitions, winning seven and scoring an average of 2.27 goals per game. Bournemouth are 7th in the table and chasing European football, but the underlying data shows even more promise. Their xPTS (expected points) tally of 40.64 is the third-highest in the Premier League.
Unlike the other teams listed, Bournemouth don’t tend to concede a lot of shots, instead, they create plenty of chances. The team average 16.32 attempts per game in the Premier League. Only Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea average more.
This shot count rises to 18 per game in the Cherries’ league matches in front of their own fans. They had 19 shots at St. James’s Park last weekend as they beat Newcastle 4-1. Andoni Iroala’s team face another stern test, but home advantage should mean they have more than their fair share of shots.