The UCL last-16 tie between Lille and Borussia Dortmund remains finely poised after a 1-1 draw in the first leg in Germany. Dortmund seemed to have gained the initiative, but Hakon Arnar Haraldsson grabbed an equaliser for the French side with their only shot on target.
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Lille have warmed up for the second leg on home soil with a 1-0 home win in Ligue 1 over Montpellier. Canadian forward, Jonathan David, was once again Lille’s talisman.
They couldn’t have asked for an easier game to prepare for Wednesday night, dominating possession with 77% against Ligue 1’s bottom club. The win moved Lille to within five points of second-placed Marseille.
It couldn’t have gone any worse for Dortmund in their preparation for the trip to Lille. BVB slipped to a 1-0 home defeat at the hands of mid-table Augsburg, with only one shot on target despite having 72% possession.
Their form has been dismal after UCL games in the Bundesliga this season, which explains their lowly tenth-place position.
Lille Expected Lineup: Chevalier; Meunier, Bekker, Alexsandro, Diakite, Andre, Bouaddi, Haraldsson, Mbappe, Mukau, David
Borussia Dortmund Expected Lineup: Kobel; Ryerson, Svensson, Can, Schlotterbeck, Sabitzer, Groß, Adeyemi, Gittens, Brandt, Guirassy
Not only did Lille finish inside the top eight of the UCL’s league phase this season, but they are also having a strong domestic campaign. LOSC are in a good position to secure UCL qualification for 2025/26, regardless of how their knockout campaign goes in the coming weeks.
As for Borussia Dortmund, they had to qualify for the knockout stage through the play-offs. BVB have also had a torrid time in the Bundesliga and are currently 12 points behind where they were at this stage last season.
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Dortmund’s inconsistency has been their downfall, with an equal number of wins and losses in the Bundesliga. For that reason alone, we are not keen siding with BVB to seal the win in regular time. We’re backing the contest to go into extra time or for Lille to run out winners, with the game featuring three or more goals.
Dortmund were the second top scorers in the league phase, while Lille averaged more than two goals scored per game.
Dortmund have conceded just 8% of their away UCL games in the first half. They have also scored just 46% of their goals away from home inside the first 45 minutes.
More than three-fifths (61%) of Lille’s home goals scored in the UCL this term have also arrived in the second half. All of this suggests there’s more than a 50% chance of the second half yielding more goals than the first period.
The first half is likely to be a cagey affair anyhow. With the tie evenly balanced at 1-1, neither side will want to make any early mistakes that could set the tone for the rest of the contest.
Lille’s 25-year-old striker, Jonathan David, has been an incredible acquisition since joining from Belgian side Gent in 2020. The Canadian has scored 14 goals in 23 Ligue 1 appearances so far this season.
David’s Champions League form in 2024/25 has been even more impressive, with six goals in nine UCL appearances, which is a strike rate of 66.67%.
Despite this, David has been priced at 2.50 to score any time in the second leg. This gives him a probability of just 40% to score, which is well down on his UCL strike rate this season – and even his domestic output in Ligue 1. This value play is comfortably our strongest pick of the three Lille vs Borussia Dortmund predictions listed.