La Liga ranks among the top leagues in Europe when considering goals scored from outside the box.
La Liga winner
Odds
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
The La Liga title battle between the three top teams is drawing the most betting interest, but it could be time to look elsewhere. With such modest odds for the three sides in contention, there’s not much value in backing any of them at this stage.
Another betting angle worth considering is goals from outside the area angle. La Liga is the only league out of the traditional big-five in Europe to see two or more teams net double figures from outside the area this term.
Real Madrid lead the way in that regard, with 11 goals from outside the box so far this term in La Liga. Barcelona aren’t too far behind with 10, but Atletico are a little further down the list with seven.
Unexpected teams like Celta Vigo and Real Betis have made it into the top five, alongside La Liga’s top three. As Barcelona are the second-highest league scorers in the top-five European leagues this season, it’s probably not a huge surprise to see them included.
Among the 96 teams across Europe’s top-five leagues, Betis rank a modest 51st with 32 goals scored this season. Seven of those have come from outside the area, meaning 22% of their La Liga strikes this season came from outside the box.
That’s an impressive tally, but remarkably, it’s not the best, as Real Valladolid have scored 25 of their La Liga goals from outside the box. They have only scored 16 all season, but it shows they can be effective from distance.
There is one standout candidate for scoring from outside the box in La Liga this season, and that is Federico Valverde. He has scored five times in La Liga this term, and all five goals came from outside the box.
There are three other players to have scored 2+ goals from outside the box this season, which make up their entire goal tally for the campaign. Pape Gueye of Villarreal, Fran Beltran of Celta Vigo and Jofre Carreras of Espanyol are among them.
Beltran is particularly notable, as he plays for a Celta side who rank in the top five for goals scored from outside the box in La Liga. He has scored two of the seven such goals they have netted this season, so he presents a great statistical bet.
This is certainly a market which could provide value for bettors. In midweek Copa del Rey action, Valverde was priced at 15.00 by 1xBet to score from outside the box against Real Sociedad. That’s a huge price considering others on the list were priced as low as 8.00.
The shortest-priced player in that game was Kylian Mbappe, and the Frenchman has scored three times from outside the box this season. That’s the joint-second highest tally in La Liga, yet Valverde was priced nearly twice as high to score such a goal. Valverde could be a value pick moving forward this season.
Only two players in La Liga have attempted more shots from outside the box than the Uruguayan this term. Barcelona’s Lamine Yamal and Raphinha are those players. In their midweek Copa del Rey game, they were priced at 11.00 and 6.50 respectively to score from outside the box.
Yamal and Raphinha have both scored twice from outside the box in La Liga this season. That pair account for 40% of Barcelona’s goals from outside the box tally this La Liga campaign.
Three players to watch are Dodi Lukebakio, Alex Baena and Isi Palazon. They have all attempted 24+ shots from outside the area in La Liga this season without scoring. If bookmakers haven’t noticed their ability to shoot prolifically from distance, there could be huge value in them to score from outside the box.