Juventus and AC Milan should be expected to draw 1-1.
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Both squads have traveled to Riyadh seeking an opportunity to set the tone for the rest of the season.
The spotlight will not only be on the players, but also on the touchline. Thiago Motta and the newly appointed Sergio Coniceçao add an intriguing twist to an already storied rivalry.
Despite being unbeaten in Serie A, Juventus have recorded 11 draws from 18 matches. This shows their inability to maintain leads, which is further illustrated by their recent 2-2 stalemate against Fiorentina.
Sunday’s 1-1 draw against Roma left the Rossoneri eight points adrift from the fourth spot in the league and marked the end of Paulo Fonseca’s tenure.
His compatriot Conceição is stepping into the spotlight, bringing a winning pedigree and deep knowledge of Italian football.
The probable lineup for Juventus in the “system of play.”
Di Gregorio; Savona, Gatti, Kalulu, Cambiaso; Locatelli, Thuram; Yildiz, Koopmeiners, Conceição; Vlahovic.
The probable lineup for AC Milan in the “system of play.”
Maignan; Emerson Royal, Gabbia, Thiaw, Theo Hernandez; Fofana, Reijnders; Leão, Pulisic, Chukwueze; Morata.
The Bianconeri’s season has been a mix of resilience and vulnerability, with their defensive issues being the main concern.
Juventus have conceded goals from winning positions in recent matches. Since mid-October, when centre-back Bremer suffered a season-ending injury, they have endured six comebacks in Serie A.
Dusan Vlahovic, their talismanic forward, continues to be crucial to the team’s fortunes.
Despite his best efforts, the Serbian has struggled to consistently find the back of the net, and Juventus’ dependence on his goals has never been more evident.
The imminent return of Arkadiusz Milik offers hope for strengthening their attacking options—something that’s crucial for our Juventus vs AC Milan predictions.
Milan’s current issues are evident in their inconsistent league performances, leaving them eighth in the table, albeit with a game in hand.
Milan’s defensive weaknesses have been exposed under Fonseca, having leaked 27 goals in 24 matches across all competitions—far from what’s expected of a team with lofty ambitions.
Conceição’s primary task is to instill solidity and resilience in a team plagued by injuries.
Key players such as Christian Pulisic, Rafael Leão, and Ruben Loftus-Cheek have been sidelined with injuries, and their availability could be pivotal in the semi-final.
Conceição’s tactical skills will be put to the test as he seeks to reignite Milan’s spark.
Conceição arrives with a reputation for building disciplined, defensively sound teams capable of quick counter-attacks—a contrast to Motta’s focus on possession and high pressing.
What will be most interesting is how Conceição adapts his tactical approach, especially given the similarities in formation with his predecessor, particularly the use of a 4-2-3-1 system.
This consistency offers Milan continuity amid change, but also presents the challenge of establishing a defensive organisation.
Under Conceição, Porto kept clean sheets in 50% of their league encounters from 2017 to 2024. They conceded an average of just 0.7 goals per match in this period.
Back in November, these two teams played out one of the least exciting games of the current season. The game ended in a scoreless draw with only three shots on target recorded and a cumulative xG (expected goals) of 1.12.
Therefore, our Juventus vs AC Milan predictions indicate betting on a low-scoring game could be a smart move.