Both Spanish giants have favourable fixtures this weekend, but historic data suggests they might struggle in La Liga following their overseas trip.
Getafe vs Barcelona
Odds
Over 2.5 Goals
Getafe Asian Handicap +1.25
Real Madrid vs Las Palmas
Odds
Both Teams To Score – Yes
Las Palmas Asian Handicap +2.5
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Barcelona triumphed 5-2 in the final, handing Real Madrid their second defeat of the season in El Clásico. This historic result saw Real concede at least four goals in consecutive matches, while Barca scored more in the last two games (nine in total) than in the previous six combined.
After a week-long absence from Spain, featuring the Super Cup semi-finals and two Copa del Rey rounds, and with the Champions League resuming next week, are both clubs in danger of losing points in La Liga this weekend?
A glance at Italy reveals a similar scenario that unfolded last weekend following their national Super Cup in Saudi Arabia. Only Inter Milan secured a victory, narrowly beating newly promoted Venezia 1-0, while Juventus, AC Milan, and Atalanta all had to settle for draws.
Notably, Atalanta, usually reliable in Serie A, were held to a 0-0 draw at Udinese, managing just 0.23 xG (expected goals) – their lowest tally all season – while Udinese produced 2.05 xG.
This trend was mirrored last campaign when Serie A teams struggled post-Super Cup, with lacklustre performances and low xG averages (0.83) across their matches. Similarly, Monaco dropped points last Friday in Ligue 1, following their return from the Trophée des Champions played in Doha.
The Spanish Super Cup has been hosted in Saudi Arabia since 2020, barring 2021 when it was held in Andalusia. Historically, both Los Blancos and Barça have struggled in their initial matches upon returning from the Middle-East.
The post-Super Cup hangover has been a consistent factor, with both sides managing victories by more than a single goal margin just three times out of 14 matches across four campaigns.
Last season, Real Madrid were knocked out of the Copa del Rey by Atlético Madrid, and needed a stoppage time goal to edge out Almeria in La Liga. Barcelona had a slightly better record, thanks to two wins, but conceded against third division Unionistas de Salamanca and required two late goals to beat Real Betis.
Looking at post-Super Cup fixtures in January 2022, Real Madrid drew twice against Elche, while Barcelona lost to Athletic Bilbao in the Copa del Rey before managing a 1-0 win at Alaves. Even in 2020, both clubs managed only narrow victories in their respective fixtures against Sevilla (2-1 for Real) and Granada (1-0 for the Blaugrana).
This weekend’s matchday 20 in La Liga sees Hansi Flick’s men visiting Getafe on Saturday and La Casa Blanca hosting Las Palmas the following day. Despite projected victory probabilities of 63.80% for Barcelona and 81.80% for Carlo Ancelotti’s side, bettors might find more value in the goals market or Asian Handicap.
The Catalans are unbeaten in their last eight encounters with Getafe, but have failed to score in their last four visits to the Coliseum Stadium, three of which ended 0-0. With Getafe projected to score 0.93 goals, backing Over 2.5 Goals or Both Teams To Score – Yes could be wise. The Asian Handicap +1.25 for Getafe offers further cover if they lose by a single goal.
In Real’s clash against Las Palmas, where bookmakers anticipate a high-scoring affair with a goal line of 3.75, you might consider Both Teams To Score – Yes.
The team from Gran Canaria have performed admirably against top sides this season, and given Real’s defensive struggles, the Asian Handicap +2.5 for Las Palmas also presents an attractive option.
Our projections suggest a total goal line of 3.4, indicating that a bet on Real Madrid to win with Both Teams To Score – Yes might be a smart choice.