The last four editions of the competition have been won by teams who have a current squad value of over €1 billion. The heavyweights have dominated this tournament in recent years, but there have been several cases of underdogs competing.
With Europe’s biggest teams spending lavishly on the biggest talents, clubs outside the established elite need to perform off the pitch to secure results on it. We have assessed the correlation between positive net spending and astute business in the transfer market ahead of matchday six in the league phase.
Champions League Market
Odds
Top 8 Finish – Atalanta
Top 8 Finish – Lille
Top 8 Finish – Benfica
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Atalanta
Gian Piero Gasperini’s side triumphed in the Europa League last season, and they have made a fine start to their Champions League campaign. They are currently 5th in the league phase. Atalanta’s success stems from savvy transfer market business and the tactical nous of their veteran manager.
With €123.72m, Atalanta have the highest positive net spend in Serie A over the past five seasons. This is well above the average of just €25.74m. Despite raising tremendous sums in the transfer market, the market value of their squad is still €447.60m. They have sold the likes of Rasmus Hojlund, Teun Koopmeiners, Cristian Romero and Dejan Kulusevski in recent years, but their ability to find adequate replacements means they are still able to compete with the big boys in Europe.
Atalanta are unbeaten in this season’s Champions League. They face the reigning champions this week, and another win would leave them poised to make it into the top eight.
Lille
Lille were beaten on penalties in the quarter-finals of the Europa Conference League by an expensive Aston Villa squad last season. They are competing in Europe once again, but this time they are proving their worth in the Champions League.
Ligue 1 clubs have been largely successful in raising funds through player sales in the past five years. Only five of the 18 clubs currently in the league recorded a negative net spend during that period. However, Lille stand out with by far the best record in the transfer market, boosting a positive net spend of €242.65m. They have sold the likes of Victor Osimhen, Leny Yoro and Amadou Onana in recent windows.
Bruno Genesio’s side have already shaken things up by beating Real Madrid in this season’s competition. They have also beaten Atletico Madrid and earned a draw with Juventus. Lille play Sturm Graz and Feyenoord at home in their remaining three games, and wins in both clashes would likely be enough to see them clinch a place in the top eight.
Benfica
Benfica are a team with a strong European history, but they don’t have the luxury of spending big sums of money to generate success. They lost on penalties in the quarter-finals of the Europa League last season, but have shown they can compete with Europe’s elite in the opening months of the current campaign.
Since the start of the 2020/21 season, the Eagles have recorded a positive net spend of €250.29m. Despite this, their squad market value remains relatively high with €335.50m.
Roger Schmidt’s team face challenging fixtures ahead, but they have shown they are capable of overcoming any opponent, particularly at home. A 4-0 win over Atletico Madrid has been the highlight of their Champions League campaign thus far. They face Bologna at the Estadio da Luz this week, and a win could put them in contention for a top-eight finish ahead of the final two matchdays.
The Portuguese side appear to be good value as an outside bet for automatic qualification to the last 16. It’s interesting to see that the teams that have fared best in the transfer market in Italy, France and Portugal are all competing as we approach the business end of the league phase, which provides an opportunity for punters.