It’s all to play for in some Champions League last-16 ties, which could lead to some exciting and open games in the second leg.
Selection
Odds
Arsenal vs PSV: Under 2.5 goals
Lille vs Dortmund: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Some ties in the Champions League last-16 already seem to be decided, particularly Arsenals vs PSV. The Gunners have a 7-1 lead ahead of the second leg at the Emirates and are almost guaranteed a spot in the quarter-finals.
Six of the other seven ties, however, are either level or one side has an advantage of no more than two goals, so it’s all to play for. Interestingly, only two sides across the eight ties are heading into the second leg as away sides defending a lead.
One of those sides is Bayern Munich, who beat Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 in the first leg, and they appear good value to advance. The other side is Real Madrid, who travel to city rivals Atletico with a 2-1 advantage in their quest to defend their title.
Only one of the ties stands level heading into the second leg – Dortmund vs Lille – so seven teams have a deficit to overthrow. That could certainly lead to some entertaining second legs, as those seven sides have 90 minutes to at least level the score.
There’s history to suggest over 2.5 goals is likely in a slim majority of games, as five of the eight last-16 second legs from last season yielded 3+ goals. There were an incredible six away wins in the second legs of those games too. That hints that sides like Bayern and Real Madrid won’t necessarily sit in and protect their advantages.
All these signs point to plenty of entertainment next week. As sides come out to try and overthrow deficits, they leave themselves vulnerable at the back. Bookmakers have taken this into account, as over 2.5 goals is priced shorter than under 2.5 in all eight second legs.
Everything points to goals in most of the second legs, but that won’t necessarily be the case in all. It would probably be wise to approach each game individually, rather than assuming all games will see over 2.5 goals.
Take Arsenal vs PSV for example. It looks likely to be low-scoring, despite the 7-1 scoreline in the first leg. The tie is already decided, but both sides have domestic commitments to focus on, so they could prioritise those instead.
The lack of impact of any result in this tie on the overall outcome could result in a low-scoring game. The same could be said for Bayern vs Leverkusen, although that tie is slightly different.
The two sides are well-acquainted with each other through the Bundesliga, and with a three-goal deficit, Leverkusen are still hanging on. It will take a remarkable turnaround to do so, but the tie is not over just yet, especially with Leverkusen’s form over the last two seasons.