Under immense pressure, Lyon must stabilise their finances by the end of the season to avoid relegation to the second division, which is something they haven’t faced in 36 years.
This decision by the DNCG, French football’s financial regulator, is further made worse by an imposed transfer ban.
As Lyon navigate their campaigns in both Ligue 1 and the Europa League, the need for cost-cutting measures, particularly through the sale of key players, is expected to significantly influence betting strategies.
Ligue 1
Lyon Odds
Top Four Finish
Ligue 1
Lyon Odds
Top Three Finish
Europa League
Lyon Odds
Top 8 Finish in League Stage
Europa League
Lyon Odds
To Reach The Final
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Despite currently holding fifth place in Ligue 1 and eyeing a potential spot in next season’s Champions League, Lyon face serious financial challenges.
The club’s wage bill is the second highest in the league, which is at odds with their lack of top-four finishes since the 2020/21 season.
The club’s poor results have not made Lyon a lucrative option in the betting market.
Over the past five seasons, bettors supporting Les Gones in the 1X2 market have experienced a 6.1% loss in return on investment.
Major changes are expected soon, with high-profile players such as Alexandre Lacazette, who has netted 187 goals for the club, goalkeeper Anthony Lopes, and Nicolas Tagliafico likely to be sold.
Even seasoned players such as Nemanja Matic and Corentin Tolisso could be put on the transfer list.
Lyon’s talented young players have attracted interest from Europe’s elite clubs, further complicating the club’s strategic decisions.
Malick Fofana, a 19-year-old forward, is a prime example of the club’s successful youth development. Having secured his first cap for Belgium, Fofana’s impressive tally of five goals and two assists this season has made him a desirable target.
Rayan Cherki, another homegrown star, continues to be the focus of ongoing transfer speculations. Despite links to major clubs such as Fulham, Borussia Dortmund, Liverpool, and Paris Saint-Germain, Cherki stayed at Lyon this summer.
A potential departure would affect the club both financially and mentally. Fellow forwards Ernest Nuamah and Gift Orban add depth to Lyon’s offensive lineup.
Although Nuamah has yet to meet expectations at Lyon, his untapped potential still draws attention.
Similarly, Orban’s limited playtime (just 19% of minutes in Ligue 1) contrasts with his knack for scoring, potentially paving the way for new opportunities elsewhere.
Despite their financial struggles, Lyon’s on-field performances are still crucial for maintaining team spirit and competitiveness.
Since taking over as manager in November 2023, Pierre Sage has effectively blended youthful energy with veteran experience, with key contributions from players like Cherki and Fofana.
His leadership has resulted in an impressive 17.4% ROI for betting on Lyon to win in the 1X2 market during the 2023/24 season.
The team’s slow start this season, with only one win in the first five, has resulted in a -10.3% return on win profitability.
Lyon are currently unbeaten in six league games, which is their best run of form since April 2023, but they now need to maintain this consistency.
Sage’s goal is twofold: to secure qualification for next season’s Champions League, which is vital for the club’s finances, and to navigate the challenges of the domestic league with a potentially weakened squad due to expected player departures.
Our in-house projection tool forecasts Lyon finishing the Ligue 1 season in fifth place, collecting 57 points, four more than in 2023/2024.
This sets up a tight duel with Olympique Marseille, offering Lyon a 40.3% chance of breaking into the top four to secure their place in Europe’s top club competition.
Amid their domestic challenges, Lyon may opt to prioritise the Europa League campaign by resting players during Ligue 1 matches to improve their chances on the international stage.
This approach is not new; two of the last three Europa League winners—Eintracht Frankfurt and Sevilla—secured their Champions League berths through their victories in the competition rather than their league standings.
Lyon currently boast the fourth-best attack in the Europa League, but their expected goals (xG) data indicates they have been overperforming both offensively and defensively.
These statistics highlight the importance of deploying their strongest lineup in upcoming pivotal matches against Qarabag and Eintracht Frankfurt, before the transfer market opens in January.
Winning these games is essential for Lyon to secure a top-eight position in the league phase and progress to the Round of 16.