We’re into the final four of the Copa del Rey, and the Coppa Italia/DFB-Pokal have reached the quarters. Should bettors prioritise league form first?
Midweek cup bets
Odds
Leipzig to beat Wolfsburg
Juventus to win and over 2.5 goals vs Empoli
Draw or Real Madrid and both teams to score vs Real Sociedad
Evens
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
No matter how many upsets or shock results occur, the favourites will always be favourites. Looking at the midweek cup fixtures coming up in Spain, Italy and Germany, the bookies’ odds prove that to be the case. However, there could be value in examining how teams approach these matches.
Take Juventus, for instance, as they take on Empoli in the Coppa Italia quarterfinals this week. Empoli have won almost as many cup games as they have in their entire Serie A campaign, but does that make an underdog win likely? Probably not. Still, their surprise victories over Torino and Fiorentina in this competition show they can perform above expectations.
Similarly with Real Madrid and Real Sociedad, one is much further up the La Liga table and full of superstars, so odds are in their favour. Yet, Celta Vigo and Leganes both gave them problems in the Copa del Rey, so they are arguably more vulnerable than in the league. You would have to be bold to bet against them, but a double chance with goals could prove fruitful, given their previous results.
Cup upsets do happen. We saw it in the DFB-Pokal when Arminia Bielefeld stunningly knocked out Champions League-cashing Freiburg. However, such surprises are the exception rather than the rule. All of La Liga’s top three are in the Copa del Rey semis, and only one side out of Serie A’s top 10 reached the Coppa Italia quarters. The pattern is clear.
Juventus’ home record shows how hard they are to beat on their own patch – they have only lost four times since the start of 2024. However, there have been too many draws for Thiago Motta’s liking and not enough clean sheets. This makes the goals market interesting.
Similarly, Real Madrid’s games are rarely short of goals. They haven’t had a 0-0 draw since May 2024, and all but three of their last 12 games have ended up with over 2.5 goals. The two-legged format of their semifinal against Sociedad gives them a second chance, but goals appear more certain than the outcome.
Looking over to Germany, the RB Leipzig vs VfL Wolfsburg tie is harder to predict. The hosts have earned 14 points from their last 10 Bundesliga games, while the visitors have 13 – and their records are almost identical. Leipzig’s home advantage and arguably stronger squad should see them prevail, but current form suggests the result could go either way.
No team in the German top-flight has been involved in more BTTS fixtures (18) than Wolfsburg, however, and you can back that at 1.60. There are also only five teams with a higher ratio of games with over 2.5 goals (65%), so BTTS and over 2.5 at 2.00 could be worth considering.
Midweek cup games often bring surprises, and the last round of all these competitions produced goals – so maybe they are a better bet.