France should beat Croatia 3-1 and level the tie.
Croatia landed a shock 2-0 first leg victory in their Nations League quarter-final with France. Les Bleus enjoyed all the possession and created more chances than the Croatians but still ended up losing.
Even the return of France’s talisman, Kylian Mbappe, wasn’t enough to inspire a French victory. They fell behind to an unexpected headed goal from Ante Budimir. Meanwhile, Ivan Perisic took advantage of some sloppy French defending to fire in a second before the break.
France haven’t managed to win when conceding first in the Nations League in the last three occasions. This trend is reflected in the odds on Stake, where bettors can explore live betting markets and use the Stake Promo Code for special offers.
Kylian Mbappe registered six shots of his own during the game, and the Croatian goal was fortunate to remain unbreached. However, the hosts held on for a famous victory.
However, the job is far from over. France still have a second chance to reach the semi-final stage. They must win by two goals at least to take the tie into extra time or three goals to win outright.
France’s recent head-to-head record with Croatia isn’t glowing. They haven’t won in their last three competitive meetings, scoring just one goal across the three games.
France Expected Lineup: Maignan; Kounde, Digne, Konate, Saliba, Guendouzi, Rabiot, Tchouameni, Dembele, Kolo Muani, Mbappe
Croatia Expected Lineup: Livakovic; Stanisic, Gvardiol, Sutalo, Caleta-Car, Modric, Kovacic, Perisic, Kramaric, Baturina, Budimir
Although France’s recent record against Croatia is not the best, it’s hard to bet against them in this second leg encounter. They have too much firepower to go scoreless again.
Online betting sites reflect this confidence, with France heavily favored to bounce back and level the tie.
Mbappe should have scored at least twice on Thursday, while fellow forward Ousmane Dembele is in the form of his life right now.
With Mbappe, Dembele and Randal Kolo Muani all playing from the outset, this is the most attack-minded team France can field. With two goals to overturn in Paris, we believe France can do it. They registered 1.32 xG in the first leg, which was only fractionally worse than Croatia’s output (1.43 xG).
In France’s Nations League campaign, 58% of their goals have been scored in the first half. Meanwhile, 75% of Croatia’s goals conceded have also arrived in the opening 45.
It’s difficult to see France playing a patient game here. They will want to at least halve the deficit in the early exchanges and put pressure on Croatia.
It is estimated that there is a relatively low chance of the first 45 having the most goals scored. However, given the hosts’ attacking lineup and the need for goals, we believe this is more likely. Additionally, Croatia’s ageing midfield could be a factor. Can the likes of Luka Modric and Ivan Perisic play at the same intensity twice in four days?
Four of Croatia’s ten goals scored in their Nations League campaign have arrived in the 16th-30th minute window.
Similarly, three of France’s eight goals conceded in the Nations League happened in the same timeframe. Of our three France vs Croatia predictions, this one appears the most supported by data.
We envisage France to apply pressure on the Croatians in the first 15 minutes. The visitors may eventually succumb to an opener in the 16-30-minute period. Given that just 30% and 25% of Croatia’s goals scored and conceded in this campaign happened in the second half, we believe Monday’s first half will be a thrilling one.