Some clubs spent a fortune in January, others decided to work with what they have. The consequences of both tactics could be significant.
January transfer window knock-on bets
Odds
Brighton to finish top six
Aston Villa to finish top six
Real Betis to reach Conference League final
Como over 1.5 goals v Venezia
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
There were some big winners and big losers in the January transfer window in England’s top-flight. Manchester City spent a fortune, Aston Villa made some shrewd moves, and Arsenal might have created some problems for themselves. Now, it’s a matter of waiting to see how things unfold.
It has been a long time since Manchester City were at odds of 351.00 to win a league title with so many games left to play. Unfortunately for them, some strong winter signings won’t change the outcome – the damage has already been done. However, they are at 1.40 to finish in the top four.
Villa’s work in the window has set them up for an interesting end to the season. They made a substantial profit from Jhon Duran’s sale and signed the likes of Marcus Rashford, Marco Asensio and Donyell Malen, so a top-six finish at 6.00 looks interesting.
Arsenal’s lack of transfer activity, meanwhile, has left them at 13.00 for the title. Injuries have hampered them, and the 1-0 home defeat to West Ham United exposed their issues. They will need to regroup to stay in the race.
Brighton & Hove Albion, on the other hand, were active in the market last month. They have been exceeding expectations for some time now, but recently they have become one of the world’s biggest spenders. Their odds for a top-six finish are now at 3.50, and with their squad depth, they are well-equipped to achieve it – as demonstrated by their three wins in a row.
The winter window was a relatively quiet one in Spain’s elite league, with seven clubs not even signing a single player. This includes the top three – Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid – but that shouldn’t be seen as a bad window, as they simply didn’t need any reinforcements. These three remain the only realistic contenders in the title race.
The fight for fourth place is wide open, however, with Athletic Bilbao (1.25) and Villarreal (3.75) leading the charge. The battle for sixth place is even more intense, with everyone down to 14th-placed Getafe having at least an outside chance. One such team is Antony’s new club, Real Betis.
Los Verdiblancos lost Assane Diao to Como in Serie A, but replaced him by loaning the Brazilian attacker from Manchester United. Cucho Hernandez was also added to their roster, and they have gone on to win four of their last seven in all competitions.
A top-four finish (at 81.00) is probably out of reach, but their new arrivals could be what they need to progress in Europe. Betis were knocked out of the Champions League and fell into the Conference League, where they will be optimistic about their chances. With Chelsea in the competition, winning the trophy is a big challenge, but reaching the final is quite achievable.
Italy’s top-flight clubs were active in the January transfer window. AC Milan and Juventus were amongst the biggest spenders as they push towards their European goals. Recent results suggest their efforts have paid off. A top-four finish (at 8.00) may be out of reach for Milan, but Juve (1.30) appear to be in good shape.
Interestingly, it was actually a team further down the division who spent the most. After their first game of 2025, Cesc Fabregas’ men found themselves just above the bottom three. They felt like they had to do something about it.
They responded by investing in Maxence Caqueret, Anastasios Douvikas and Assane Diao – and since January 1st, they have lost only four games. Diao has already scored five goals for them. Relegation now feels unlikely, and with the bottom three all to face in the next few weeks, they are likely to secure more wins than losses.