Currently seventh in the table, six points adrift of Lazio, but with a game in hand against AC Milan at home, can they repeat last season’s success?
Serie A
Bologna Odds
To Finish In Top 4
Coppa Italia
Bologna Odds
To Win Outright (each way: places 1-2)
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Under Thiago Motta, the Rossoblú finished in fifth place last season, which marked their first-ever Champions League qualification.
This campaign, with Vincenzo Italiano at the helm, they have one more point in the table. They have also netted 32 goals—nine more than a year ago—and boast a +6 goal difference, compared to +5 in 2023/2024.
They were also in seventh at this stage last season, but just two points adrift of fourth place.
Should they win their outstanding fixture against AC Milan, the gap to fourth would narrow to just three points. This would make another Champions League qualification far from impossible.
Bologna struggled at the beginning of this season, securing only one victory in their first eight Serie A matches.
Such a slow start stemmed from adjusting to Italiano’s tactics and the summer departures of star players Riccardo Calafiori, Joshua Zirkzee, and Alexis Saelemaekers.
Additionally, Lewis Ferguson, voted last season’s best midfielder in Italy, only returned from injury in early November.
Champions League commitments took a toll at first, but Bologna have improved since late October.
From matchday 10 onwards, they have lost just twice, failing to score only in a 3-0 defeat at Lazio—where they played with 10 men for over an hour.
With 24 points collected, two per game on average, they hold the fourth-best Serie A tally over this period, just five points behind Inter Milan.
Despite last season’s third-best defensive record in Italy, this campaign sees Bologna conceding an average of 1.3 goals per match. This is due to Italiano’s more aggressive pressing style.
Notably, they held Inter Milan to a 2-2 draw last week, registering more shots than the reigning champions.
Apart from their 3-0 setback at Napoli on matchday two, Bologna have consistently matched or exceeded their expected goals (xG), and the underlying data align closely with their points tally.
Projected to collect an average of 1.68 points per game, the club from Emilia-Romagna could potentially conclude the season with 64 points, four shy of last year’s total.
The upcoming fixtures appear favourable. Bologna face teams currently below them in the standings, including relegation candidates Empoli, Como, Lecce, Parma, Cagliari, and Verona, plus Torino, whom they defeated 2-0 in December.
Based on the recent form, they could gather 14 to 18 points from these encounters, and by matchday 27 have the same points (51) as they did last season.
Our projection tools suggest fourth-placed Juventus will finish with 67.4 points, which is the lowest fourth-place tally since 2015/2016.
Bologna’s odds to clinch a top-four spot stand at 10.00, reflecting a 10% implied probability, though our model estimates only a 3% chance.
However, positive results in forthcoming matches could significantly shorten these odds, making now the right time to back Italiano’s side.
Bologna’s 33rd-place in the Champions League rules them out of contention in Europe.
This position allows them to prioritize Serie A and the Coppa Italia, which resumes on 4 February with their home tie against Atalanta.
Rated as the second-biggest underdogs behind Empoli, Bologna’s Coppa Italia odds are set at 17.00.
Meanwhile, Atalanta, engaged in key Champions League matches against Sturm Graz and Barcelona, maintain a 15% chance of winning the Scudetto.
Their focus on the title race and Europe is expected to persist until next month, and that could play in Bologna’s favour.
Furthermore, Bologna’s manager Italiano has proven his ability in cup ties. He has guided Fiorentina to two Conference League finals and a Coppa Italia final and semi-final over the last two seasons.
While yet to claim a major trophy, Italiano boasts an impressive knockout record, achieving a 48% win rate and facing only seven defeats in 31 matches.