Chelsea have picked up just two Premier League wins since the turn of the year. Is a top-four finish still viable for Enzo Maresca’s men?
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Back in December when goals from Marc Cucurella and Nicolas Jackson handed the Blues the win over the Bees, Maresca’s men were a real threat. Only Manchester City and Liverpool had beaten them, and Jackson and Cole Palmer were an attacking pair to be jealous of. Then something changed.
Injuries to Wesley Fofana and Romeo Lavia didn’t help matters, and losing both Jackson and Noni Madueke recently compounded things – but there was more. The Blues lost their way after a draw with Everton and have gone on to win just two of eight league games since then. Their form over that period is not even that of a top 10 side, let alone top four.
In September, they – or should we say Palmer – put four past Brighton to secure an impressive victory. This month, however, the Seagulls knocked them out of the FA Cup and then hammered them 3-0 at the Amex – the falloff is concerning.
Over the last 11 games across all competitions, Maresca’s side managed just two clean sheets, and one of them came against League Two outfit, Morecambe. They have also only scored more than once four times – and again, one of those games was against the Shrimps.
Next up is a trip to Aston Villa, who are unbeaten at home since October, and a double chance Villa/draw at 2.70 on Stake looks tempting. With Jackson, Madueke and Marc Guiu all injured, Joao Felix at AC Milan and Christopher Nkunku scoring once in 2025, things don’t look promising.
Chelsea’s Conference League form has been formidable this season, with 26 goals in just six games, and that could end up being their best chance of qualifying. You can back them to not finish in the top four at 8/11 on bet365, which could be a safer bet given their form. Victory in the Conference League would see them qualify for next year’s Europa League.
Their season is far from done, obviously. A top-two finish now feels out of their hands, but Chelsea are just a point away from fourth-placed Man City as things stand. A good run of form could turn things around completely, and beating Villa this weekend (at 2.37 on Stake) could be a huge catalyst. The question is whether they have what it takes right now.
With just one player over 30 in their squad, and the bulk of their regulars under 25, this project is recognised as a long-term one. The Blues have a squad with masses of potential, but question marks remain over whether this young side can bounce back from the current slump. Pressure is heaped on the shoulders of players like 22-year-old Palmer and 21-year-old Levi Colwill – it’s a lot to ask.
Chelsea are slight favourites at Villa Park with a 39% victory probability, and Palmer is seen as the most likely scorer (at 2.37 on Stake). With back-to-back home games against Southampton and Leicester City to follow, the next three weeks could be crucial – possibly even season-defining.
When comparing them to their rivals, the Blues have what it takes to turn things around and secure fourth place – it is still within reach. However, their goals conceded (34) is that of a midtable team, and their BTTS percentage of 72% is the second highest in the league. It goes up to 83% at home.
That being said, only three teams in the division have better xG (1.71 per 90 minutes), and they can definitely keep themselves within touching distance. Add in returns for Jackson, Guiu, Lavia, Fofana and Co towards the end of the season, and there is hope for a strong finish.