Chelsea have the quality to beat Brighton 2-1.
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Brighton are a point behind Chelsea heading into matchday six and they square off against the Blues at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea rallied towards the end of last season to secure a 6th-place finish, but it was only enough to secure a place in the Europa Conference League thanks to Manchester United’s FA Cup triumph. Mauricio Pochettino appeared to have things moving in the right direction, but the club opted to replace him with Enzo Maresca in the summer.
Maresca has made a solid start to his tenure at Chelsea. They were impressive in their 3-0 win over West Ham last weekend and could have scored more. Patterns of play are starting to emerge and the Blues’ young talent has started to strut their stuff.
Brighton also changed their manager following last season. Roberto De Zerbi was a popular figure at the club, but both parties felt it was time for a change.
The Seagulls have made a good start to the season under Fabian Hurzeler. They have nine points after five matches and remain unbeaten. However, they haven’t tasted victory since their last-gasp winner against Manchester United.
The probable lineup for Chelsea in the “system of play.”
Sanchez; Fofana, Adarabioyo, Colwill, Cucurella; Caicedo, Fernadez, Palmer; Madueke, Sancho, Jackson
The probable lineup for Brighton in the “system of play.”
Verbruggen; Veltman, Van Hecke, Dunk, Estupinan; Hinshelwood, Wieffer, Rutter; Adingra, Mitoma. Welbeck
Despite Chelsea’s woes in recent seasons, they have won their last three competitive matches against Brighton, so the first of our predictions for this match is a home win.
Only Manchester City have scored more goals in the Premier League thus far. Maresca’s team are scoring an average of 2.2 goals per game, slightly overperforming their xG of 1.61. Chelsea come into this one on the back of two straight victories and will fancy their chances in front of their own fans.
Brighton have drawn their last three and finished two of those matches with an inferior xG to their opponents.
Brighton’s last away game was a 1-1 draw against Arsenal. They netted three goals in their only other league match on the road thus far and can contribute to the goal count here.
Both teams have scored in the last six Premier League meetings between these sides. Over that period, Brighton have scored an average of 1.83 goals per game and conceded 1.5.
Only four teams have conceded fewer goals than Maresca’s team, who are conceding an average of a goal per game. However, Chelsea are yet to keep a clean sheet at Stamford Bridge.
Nicolas Jackson netted twice in Chelsea’s last Premier League fixture. He came into criticism in the early stages of his Blues’ career, but the numbers paint a pretty picture for the attacker. Since the start of last season, only Erling Haaland and Ollie Watkins have scored more league goals from open play. We are backing Jackson to continue his purple patch and add to his tally here.
Jackson has four goals and two assists in five league appearances this season, so it’s safe to say confidence is high. The striker boasts a non-penalty xG of 0.62 per 90 minutes played over the last 365 days, which puts him in the 94th percentile when compared with all other forwards across Europe’s top five leagues.
West Ham struggled to contend with Jackson’s runs in behind and he should find space against a Brighton side that likes to play with a high defensive line.