In the past two seasons, teams have often been content with securing a single point that might edge them closer to qualification, leading to shared spoils.
However, the new league phase format, where all 36 teams compete in a round-robin style, has shifted the dynamics and altered teams’ approaches to fixtures.
Champions League: Match Day 5
Odds
Sporting Lisbon vs Arsenal: Draw or Arsenal and Over 1 Goal
Aston Villa vs Juventus: Juventus Asian Handicap +0.25
Bologna vs Lille: Bologna Asian Handicap -0.25
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
In the current season, a mere 10 out of 72 Champions League matches have culminated in a draw, accounting for just 14% of games.
This figure is in sharp contrast with the draw statistics from European domestic leagues, such as Italy’s Serie A with 28.57% and France’s Ligue 1 with 23.23%.
The gradual decline in Champions League draws has been consistent. Last season saw 11 draws in the group stage (11.45%), which is a significant drop from 2022/2023, which had 19 draws (20%) and the previous year (19%).
Even the English Premier League, usually the league with the fewest draws among the top five European leagues, recorded 21.58% last season, which is notably higher than the Champions League’s group stage.
Moreover, this season’s Serbia SuperLiga boast the highest draw frequency among leagues featuring Champions League teams, standing at 20.51%.
Draws hold very little value for Champions League sides, and bookmakers’ odds have quickly adjusted to the new narrative.
The new league format introduces longer group stages, making Match Day Five less important compared to previous years.
This reduced risk changes how teams approach their strategies. Teams now prioritise proactive, attacking play, focusing on securing wins rather than settling for a draw.
With 32 out of 36 teams currently sharing the same number of points with at least one other opponent, the drive to attack and climb the table is undeniable.
With fewer games remaining, teams will be pushed to score more goals to avoid ties in points and goal difference, which are the deciding factors in their Champions League journey.
This week’s matchups feature three games with notable probabilities for a draw: Sporting vs Arsenal (odds of 3.50), Bologna vs Lille (odds of 3.25), and Aston Villa vs Juventus (odds of 3.25).
Interestingly, these odds are lower than those seen in several draw results from previous seasons’ Match Day Five games.
For example, last year, games like Benfica vs. Inter and Braga vs. Union Berlin—though ending with spoils shared—had considerably higher odds.
During the 2023/2024 Match Day Five, draws were recorded in games with average odds exceeding 3.50.
In 2022/2023, the average odds for draws on Match Day Five were 4.19, with only Club Brugge vs Porto bucking this trend before the Portuguese emphatic 4-0 triumph.
Bologna and Lille, for instance, have collectively drawn 10 out of 22 league matches this season, but their continental ambitions require performances.
The numbers paint a similar picture for Aston Villa and Juventus. Unai Emery’s men have drawn three of their league fixtures, while Juventus have shared the spoils on six occasions in Serie A.
Despite these figures, the odds for a draw at Villa Park are markedly low.
Meanwhile, Arsenal have recorded three draws away from home across all competitions, but their Champions League campaign demands a reaction after their defeat to Inter Milan at the San Siro.