Their ability to score more goals than their xG suggests there is value in the goalscorer markets, with these attackers showing no signs of slowing down.
Brentford vs Plymouth – Bryan Mbuemo To Score
St. Pauli vs Eintracht Frankfurt – Omar Marmoush To Score
Las Palmas vs Getafe – Sandro Ramirez To Score
Rennes vs Marseille – Mason Greenwood To Score
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Brentford picked up their first away win of the season last weekend, as they beat Southampton 5-0. They were credited with creating 11 big chances. However, there is one player who is exceeding expectations in terms of chance conversion this season.
Bryan Mbeumo scored a brace in the win over the Saints, taking his tally for the season to 13 goals. He has now scored four more league goals than Yoane Wissa, the Bees’ other main goal threat. However, what’s more surprising is that Mbuemo has 3.06 less xG (expected goals) than his teammate.
Furthermore, Mbuemo has overperformed his expected goals tally by 6.62. His clinical finishing is a huge asset for Thomas Frank, as his team aims to climb the table. No player in the Premier League has overperformed their xG by a greater margin.
With Brentford scoring an average of 2.7 goals per home game in the Premier League this season, Mbuemo will fancy his chances of getting on the scoresheet against Plymouth in the FA Cup. The Bees are unlikely to qualify for Europe through their league position, so Frank could name a strong team here.
Harry Kane is the clear favourite to win the Kicker-Torjägerkanone, however, Omar Marmoush is hot on his tail at this stage. Eintracht Frankfurt have enjoyed a superb start to the season and Omar’s goals have been a crucial part of their success.
Rumours of a move to Manchester City are circulating in the British press, but Dino Toppmöller is unlikely to part with his leading scorer as his team vies for a Champions League spot.
Marmoush has scored 13 goals in 15 league appearances, and what’s even more impressive is that he’s managed to overperform his xG by 3.66. In addition, Kane is overperforming by 1.63. Over the past 12 months, Omar has had a non-penalty xG of 0.67 per 90 minutes played, but is scoring 0.76 non-penalty goals per 90.
Sandro Ramirez might be trailing behind Robert Lewandowski in the race for top scorer in the Spanish league, but his goals have been vital in keeping Las Palmas above the relegation zone. The team are currently seven points above Espanyol, who occupy 18th place.
Ramirez netted the decisive goal in Las Palmas’ recent victory over Espanyol, bringing his total to five goals in his last four matches. Those goals helped Los Amarillos pick up 10 points, including three at the Camp Nou. Sandro has now scored seven La Liga goals this term from an xG of 2.39, marking the biggest overperformance in the division.
Additionally, Diego Martinez will be hoping to maintain this impressive form when his team face Getafe this weekend.
Amazingly, the five top scorers in Ligue 1 have all overperformed their xG in the top tier of French football. Kylian Mbappe’s departure means there are a slew of players in the running for the top scorer award. Moreover, Jonathan David currently leads the way with 11 goals, but it is Mason Greenwood who has been the most clinical out of those at the top.
Mason moved to Marseille in the summer and has certainly delivered on the pitch. He has now scored 10 goals from an xG of 7.17. In comparison, David has an xG of 10.21. Greenwood is a lethal finisher, equally proficient with both feet, and that is proving to be an asset for Roberto De Zerbi this season.
In addition, Luis Henrique is another standout player for Les Olympiens. The wing back has netted six goals from an xG of just 3.01. His overperformance is even more impressive than Greenwood’s. However, Mason is more likely to find himself in advanced areas of the pitch, providing bettors with a strategic advantage.