Serie A has become the most exciting league among Europe’s top five this season, with the title race likely to be decided in the final moments.
Serie A Winner
Odds
Inter Milan
Napoli
Atalanta
Serie A Winner Without Inter Milan
Odds
Atalanta
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Napoli have been the biggest surprise of the season so far.
After finishing 10th in the table in the 2023/2024 campaign and undergoing a major player overhaul in the summer, the Neapolitans have kept a steady pace in the league. They are currently three points ahead of Inter Milan, albeit having played one game more.
Our in-house projection model assigns Antonio Conte’s team a 77.7% chance of finishing in the top two and a 34.3% chance of winning the Scudetto.
With 16 games to go, this marks a massive improvement compared to the beginning of the campaign when our model gave Napoli only a 3% chance of winning the title. They are now projected to finish the season with 82.4 points, just 1.5 points shy of Inter Milan’s projected tally of 83.9.
After their 1-1 draw at the San Siro on 10 November, Napoli’s projected title-winning percentage was a mere 1%. However, their chances have increased by 33% in the following 10 games.
What factors have contributed to this change? Aside from extending their lead at the top of the table, Napoli collected 27 points out of a possible 30. More importantly, they defeated three teams currently occupying the top six positions in the league: Fiorentina, Atalanta, and Juventus.
One significant advantage for Napoli is the absence of European commitments. This allows them to prepare for just one game per week, unlike Inter Milan and Atalanta.
In similar situations, Antonio Conte led Juventus in the 2011/12 season and Chelsea in 2016/2017 to league titles.
The ‘Conte-effect’ seems to be translating into a stronger belief among Napoli players, who are performing above expectations.
Napoli currently have 10.69 more points on the table than expected according to xG data—the highest positive differential in Europe’s top five leagues.
Key players like Frank Zambo Anguissa have been impressive, scoring five goals from an expected 2.93 xG. Goalkeeper Alex Meret has also excelled, keeping nine clean sheets and a +1.9 post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed.
Will Napoli’s form continue?
They have a couple of challenging fixtures ahead, including trips to the Stadio Olimpico to face Roma and Lazio, the latter having already defeated them twice this season. These lead up to a pivotal game in early March against Inter at the “Diego Armando Maradona” stadium.
This game could determine whether the Scudetto stays in Milan or returns to southern Italy.
According to our projections, Inter Milan stand a 57.2% chance of winning the title.
However, the Nerazzurri are about to embark on a particularly challenging run of fixtures. This includes clashes with AC Milan, Fiorentina (twice in quick succession), and Juventus, leading up to their trip to Naples.
Inter’s manager, Simone Inzaghi, recently became the fastest Serie A manager to reach 200 top-flight wins—taking just 332 games, six fewer than Massimiliano Allegri. However, he now faces the challenge of managing a demanding schedule with knockout ties in both the Champions League and Coppa Italia.
Moreover, there is a concerning precedent for the Nerazzurri. Back in the 2021/2022 season, while they were the reigning champions, they had a crucial game in hand later in the season. However, they lost that match away against Bologna, which ultimately handed the Italian title to AC Milan.
With just an 8.3% chance of winning the title, Atalanta seem almost out of the race.
However, dismissing Gian Piero Gasperini’s side would be risky, particularly in the ‘winner without Inter Milan market’ offered by some bookmakers.
La Dea are projected to finish the season with 77 points, which would have guaranteed a runner-up position in the previous two campaigns.
They also rank second based on expected points, a point ahead of Napoli.
La Dea’s fixtures over the next few weeks appear more manageable, as they face relegation-threatened teams such as Verona, Cagliari, Empoli, and Venezia, as well as Torino.
Ademola Lookman is set to miss the next three games due to injury, but his absence will be balanced out by the return of Gianluca Scamacca. He was last season’s top scorer with 19 goals before a knee injury sidelined him at the start of the current campaign.
His mid-February return could tilt the odds in Atalanta’s favour in this closely-contested title race.