Following the disappointment of a Summer Euro 2024 final defeat, England kick off the Thomas Tuchel era.
England vs Albania Bets
Odds
England
Draw
Albania
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
At the moment, there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding Tuchel and his England side as no one knows what to expect. Being only the third-ever permanent foreign manager of England certainly brings its own set of pressures.
Given the country’s history with Germany both on and off the field, Tuchel’s nationality heaps even more pressure on him to succeed. A German has never managed the English national team before, and his appointment raised some eyebrows because of his nationality.
However, Tuchel is no stranger to England, having spent 18 months in England whilst managing Chelsea. His managerial CV is unmatched, having coached Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and PSG as well.
He brings a wealth of experience, including winning major trophies, having led Chelsea to the 2021 Champions League title. Interestingly, he has won silverware with each of the last four sides he has managed, which is something England desperately crave.
Tuchel will likely be most remembered by English fans for his time at Chelsea, where he became famous for his three-at-the-back system. However, he has been adaptable throughout his career, switching between a back three and four. It remains to be seen what approach he will take with England.
The German has been out of the game for a year since leaving Bayern, and he has had time to observe numerous games and plan his squad. He has been spotted at games across the country as he prepares to lead England into the World Cup qualifiers.
His first couple of games appear generous on paper at least. England will play two home games against Albania and Latvia in March.
A game against FIFA’s 65th-ranked side, Albania, doesn’t open up too many avenues of value in the 1-x-2 market given the gulf in quality. There is definitely value to be found elsewhere that the bookmakers may have overlooked.
Given his preferred back-three system, he is expected to call up additional defenders. With potentially three centre-backs on the pitch, all three could present value in the anytime scorer market. Which players to back will ultimately depend on which players he calls up, which will be revealed on Friday.
Another obvious anytime scorer bet is Harry Kane, who won the golden boot in the Bundesliga under Tuchel last season. However, he will undoubtedly be short-priced, so better value may lie in backing those in midfield instead.
Tuchel took charge of Chelsea midway through the 2020/21 season, and Jorginho finished as their top Premier League scorer that campaign. The season after – Tuchel’s only full season in charge – saw Mason Mount finish as Chelsea’s top league scorer. This may also increase the reliance on midfielders to score goals.
That campaign also revealed an interesting trend: six of the defenders Tuchel used scored at least three goals. That was actually more than some of the attackers and midfielders netted.
Full-backs Reece James and Marcos Alonso were particularly influential, contributing plenty of assists. This could open up an avenue of value in Tuchel’s full-backs in the ‘to score or assist’ market. There was a similar pattern at Bayern last season too, where defenders contributed significantly, even in a back four.
In addition to the scorer market, the last four England managers have won their opening game with an accompanying clean sheet. 1xBet have priced an England win with a clean sheet at a modest 1.47, but it offers better value than a simple England victory.
History is certainly on Tuchel’s side in his opener. England haven’t lost a home World Cup qualifier since 2000, when they were beaten by Germany. They have won 25 of their last 28 since, 17 of which came with a clean sheet. We’ll see whether that continues soon.