After beating Manchester City at the weekend, Nottingham Forest strengthened their position in the top-four race.
Nottingham Forest Bets
Odds
Top-six finish
Top-four finish
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Despite being in a relegation battle at the end of last season, Nottingham Forest are now storming towards Europe. They currently occupy a top-four spot, which they solidified by beating Manchester City on Saturday lunchtime.
Under the guidance of Nuno Espirito Santo, Forest have defied the odds and made a remarkable turnaround. While it may not be quite like Leicester City’s 2015/16 campaign, it’s certainly similar.
It’s easy to forget that Nuno is a manager who has taken another former Championship club into Europe before. He oversaw Wolves’ promotion into the Premier League in 2018 and then incredibly got them into Europe. His tactical approach is something managers just haven’t been able to combat.
A solid defensive unit has underpinned their success this term. Forest have kept a league-high 12 clean sheets, and only Arsenal and Liverpool have conceded fewer goals this term. This has proven vital, as their 45 goals scored rank only 10th in the league.
Their off-the-ball exploits have been there for all to see, with Forest averaging the lowest possession (39.4%) in the entire league. That shows they are happy to play on the counter, and that has worked to great effect this season.
They are in the bottom half of the table for xG, accurate passes, corners, touches in the opposition box and big chances this season. Yet, despite all that, they are four points inside the top four.
Chris Wood’s standout form has been a huge contributing factor. The New Zealand forward has netted 18 league goals this term, trailing only Mo Salah, Erling Haaland and Alexander Isak. This is already his second-highest scoring season at any level.
While the massive value in a Forest top-four finish is long gone, there is still value to be found in backing the Tricky Trees. 1xBet offering 2.37 for a top-four finish at this stage of the season still represents good value given their current position.
That’s largely because they have a favourable run-in over the rest of the season. Three wins in their last eight league games are not impressive. However, it’s worth noting the eight-game run saw them face seven sides currently in the top half, which made it a tough run of games.
Eight of their remaining 10 games this term come against sides currently occupying bottom-half spots. In theory, this hands Forest a more favourable run-in on paper in comparison with their top-four rivals.
That could be huge in the context of the run-in too, as Forest have already won 11 of their 12 games against such sides. Keeping up that ratio would be enough to see them into the top-four and makes 1xBet’s 2.37 odds seem like great value.
One of those games is this weekend against Ipswich, where Forest are priced favourably to claim victory. Coming in around evens, Forest seem to be overpriced, given their incredible aforementioned record against bottom-half sides.
The fact that it’s an away game shouldn’t concern them either. Only Liverpool and Arsenal have won more away points in the Premier League than Forest this season. Three successive away league defeats might explain why bookmakers are pricing Forest so generously.
Aside from the Premier League, Forest are also the highest-ranked team left in the FA Cup. They are priced a generous 13.00 by 1xBet to lift the trophy in May. Manchester City are favourites to win it, but Forest have already shown they can handle them. They could be a value pick to win the FA Cup for the first time since 1958/59.