We expect Barca to stamp their authority with a first-half goal before running out comfortable 3-0 winners.
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This match could be a turning point for both teams’ La Liga fortunes this season. Barca need all three points to keep pace with leaders Real Madrid and second-placed Atletico Madrid. Meanwhile, second-bottom Valencia know that a point could be enough to move them out of the relegation zone, which would be a big morale boost.
Barcelona have been incredibly inconsistent in the league since their 1-0 defeat at Real Sociedad in early November. They have won just one La Liga game in seven games since then. Their 5-1 win at Real Mallorca in December demonstrated their attacking prowess, but they failed to back it up with just two points from their last four games.
Barca should be buoyed by their dramatic 5-4 win at Benfica in the UEFA Champions League. There are clearly plenty of goals in this Barca team, and their backline should have an easier time against a Valencia team that have been goal-shy away from the Mestalla.
Our Barcelona vs Valencia predictions indicate Valencia have only lost once in their last five games, which helped them climb away from the bottom of the La Liga table. Their 1-0 home win over Real Sociedad was a gritty display, and Carlos Corberan’s men will need that same level of determination, if not more, to get anything out of Sunday’s trip to the Nou Camp.
Although Corberan’s arrival appears to have given Valencia a boost, their statistics away from home cannot be ignored. They have picked up just four points from ten away games and scored five goals in the process. Interestingly, they have scored first in 40% of their away games, which suggests they struggle to hold onto leads. Their points-per-game average when conceding first is even worse, standing at 0.20 versus 0.50 when scoring first.
The probable lineup for Barcelona in 4-2-3-1:
Pena Sotorres; Kounde, Balde, Araujo, Cubarsi, Casado, Pedri, Yamal, Raphinha, Gavi, Lewandowski
The probable lineup for Valencia in 4-2-3-1:
Mamardashvili; Foulquier, Gaya, Tarrega, Mosquera, Guerra, Barrenechea, Lopez, Rioja, Almeida, Duro
It’s safe to say that Barcelona have had the upper hand over Valencia in past meetings. They have won 23 out of their last 38 competitive meetings, with Valencia winning just four.
Following unexpected back-to-back home games against Leganes and Atletico Madrid, Hansi Flick’s men will be desperate to get back to winning ways. A victory over second-bottom Valencia feels like the ideal opportunity.
Valencia picked up a rare La Liga win over Real Sociedad in their last league game. However, they have picked up just four points from ten away games this season. Carlos Corberan’s men have struggled to score on the road, averaging just 0.50 goals per away game.
Barcelona’s average goal time of their first goal scored is just 22 minutes, which suggests Flick encourages his team to start games quickly. Valencia’s average goal time of their first goal conceded this season is also 31 minutes.
Both statistics point to the hosts breaking the deadlock inside the first period, before going on to secure a comfortable home victory.
Valencia have lost to nil in 40% of their away games this season. Their win over Real Sociedad makes this game more of a free hit, but their points per game average is just 0.20 points per away game after conceding first.
The La Liga average for home goals scored sits at 1.47 goals per game this season. With 2.50 goals per home game, Barcelona have far exceeded that average.
Although Valencia concede just 1.60 goals per away game on average, we expect Barca to breach their backline on multiple occasions this weekend. That’s why we are drawn to the HT-FT Correct Score market when making Barcelona vs Valencia predictions.
Backing Barca to lead 1-0 at half time and then add two goals in the second half seems like a sensible choice. We believe they can surpass their average goal tally against the team sitting second-bottom in La Liga, who have failed to score in half of their away games.