With Liverpool currently sitting eight points clear at the summit, a victory could all but cement their position in the title race.
Arne Slot’s side have emerged as bookmakers’ favourites to claim the title for the first time this season. However, both historical and recent data suggests the narrative is more nuanced.
Dismissing the four-time consecutive champions City—even if they falter this weekend—could prove to be unwise.
Premier League Outright Winner
Odds
Liverpool
Arsenal
Manchester City
Odds courtesy of Stake. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Consistency has been the hallmark of Liverpool’s campaign this season under their new manager, Arne Slot.
Averaging 2.58 points per game, they have surpassed City’s performance metrics from last season and maintained a flawless record in the Champions League.
Projections from our in-house tool indicate Liverpool could end the season with 81.2 points—the kind of tally that could secure the title in what appears to be an increasingly competitive season.
Notably, historical patterns suggest the prospective champions might lose as many as six games, a number not witnessed since the 2015/2016 season.
The unpredictability of the current campaign is underscored by the prevalence of draws, currently at 27.5% of matches, which marks the highest figure since 2015/2016.
Our projections give Liverpool a 60% chance of winning the title, with Manchester City’s prospects standing at 21%.
This optimism is reflected in the bookmakers’ odds for Slot’s side, ranging from 1.75 to 1.95, translating to an implied winning probability of 51% to 57.1%.
Betting on Liverpool to secure the title could represent solid value, especially if they earn at least a point on Sunday and shorten these odds further.
For Manchester City, the situation is more dire.
Winless in six outings and with a defence that has conceded 17 league goals—their worst record since the 2008/2009 season—City’s vulnerabilities were starkly displayed when they squandered a 3-0 lead against Feyenoord midweek. It was an unprecedented blunder during Guardiola’s tenure.
Without the shielding presence of Ballon d’Or winner Rodri, City’s defensive weaknesses have been stark.
Conceding two or more goals in six consecutive games matches their defensive woes from 1963 when they were relegated.
If Guardiola’s men are to claw back into the title fold, an unlikely triumph at Anfield is essential.
Branded as third favourites, following Arsenal, with odds from 4.50 to 5.21, dismissing City’s capacity for a comeback could be risky.
In fact, historical examples of Premier League comebacks offer hope.
Arsenal’s fightback from a 13-point deficit in the 1997/98 season exemplifies how fortunes can quickly turn.
Manchester United have defied double-digit deficits on five occasions and Pep’s men closed a 10-point gap on Liverpool to win the title in 2018/19.
Should Liverpool maintain their impressive momentum, they are on course to end the season with 98 points, a considerable margin beyond our projections.
In their 2019/2020 title-winning season, they finished with 99 points, having only dropped two points in their first 27 matches—compared to the five already lost this term.
Sustaining this blistering pace seems challenging, which may offer Manchester City a glimmer of hope, especially given their struggles with key player injuries.
There is also potential for City’s fortunes to change, given that their attacking metrics show room for improvement.
Liverpool’s defence has been resolute, yet some suggest it may be outperforming, conceding fewer goals than predicted (xGA indicates an expected conceding of 4.36 more goals).
On the other hand, Manchester City have failed to capitalize on key chances, missing out on 4.04 additional goals as per xG data.
Could we see an evening out of these trends in Sunday’s big match or will recent form continue? If it’s the former, now may be a good time to back Pep’s winning machine to get their season back on track.