The La Liga title race is one of the most fiercely contested in Europe, but who has the advantage among Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid and Barcelona?
Atletico Madrid To Win La Liga
Odds courtesy of Parimatch. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change
Atletico Madrid moved into the lead in the La Liga title race by beating Barcelona at the Camp Nou just before the winter break. Alexander Sorloth snatched the crucial goal in the 96th minute of the match. Diego Simeone’s side were under pressure for much of the match, but their resilience and ability to secure late wins could give them an edge over their title rivals. Atleti are a point ahead of Real Madrid and three above Barcelona.
Los Colchoneros are known for being defensively solid under Simeone, and this season is no different. They have conceded an average of 0.67 goals per game in the league, 0.05 fewer than Real Sociedad, who have the second-best defensive record.
Scoring goals was a major issue for Atletico Madrid last season. Their average xG (expected goals) of 1.63 was significantly lower than those of both Real and Barcelona, so adding cutting edge to their attack was a priority in the summer. It has taken some time for Julian Alvarez and Alexander Sorloth to find their feet, but the pair have been crucial in the team’s recent success. Simeone’s side have won their last 12 matches across all competitions, scoring an average of 2.75 goals per game.
Real Madrid won the league with ease last season. They also added another Champions League trophy to their collection, so the addition of Kylian Mbappe in the summer transfer window should have increased the gap in quality in Spain. However, getting the best out of the all-star cast at the Santiago Bernabeu has proven difficult. Carlo Ancelotti has tried various shapes and systems, but there were signs he had struck the right balance before the winter break.
Mbappe is starting to look like the world’s best once again. He has scored five goals in his last six competitive matches for Real Madrid, putting the lacklustre showing at Anfield behind him. Only Barcelona have scored more goals than Los Blancos in La Liga, yet there are concerns over their defence. They have conceded seven goals in their last four league games.
Ancelotti’s team are the odds-on favourites for the title at this stage. They have the chance to go above Atleti when they face Valencia, but Los Colchoneros have a game in hand. The price for Real Madrid to win the league looks a little short, given how inconsistent they have been this season. Additionally, their struggles in the Champions League could lead to more fixtures during a key part of the season. Atletico appear more likely to make it into the top eight and avoid the round of 16 playoffs at this stage.
Hansi Flick was brought in to replace Xavi in the summer, and the team made an exceptional start to the season. After 10 games, Barcelona were on course to reach the 100-point mark and were aiming to beat the record for most goals in the season. However, they have encountered difficulties in the past six weeks.
Lamine Yamal, Raphinha and Robert Lewandowski were undoubtedly the most deadly front three in Europe at one point, but the goals have fizzled out in recent weeks. Yamal’s injuries have certainly had an impact, with the Blaugrana dropping points regularly in his absence. They now have just one win in their last seven league outings, and Yamal was absent in four of their six games where they dropped points.
Despite their recent struggles, Barcelona are firmly in the title race. They are three points off top, having played a game more than their rivals. Flick’s attack is still the highest-scoring attack in Spain this season, netting 2.68 goals per game on average. Getting Yamal back to full fitness and having the front three perform at their best could see them regain the top spot, but they aren’t considered the value pick by the bookmakers at present.