We believe Atleti’s watertight defence can frustrate Real to earn a 1-1 draw on Sunday night.
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Defending La Liga champions Real Madrid travel to city rivals Atletico on Sunday evening, looking to keep pace with runaway league leaders Barcelona. Atletico are also unbeaten after their first six games, setting up an intriguing contest.
Atletico have won three and drawn three so far this season, averaging two points per game. The success of Diego Simeone’s side is once again based upon solid foundations, conceding just three goals in six matches.
In fact, aside from Barca and Real, Atletico are the only other team in La Liga yet to taste defeat this term. However, they were held to a disappointing 1-1 draw on the road at Rayo Vallecano last weekend.
As for bitter rivals, Real, they’ve been in destructive form in their first seven league matches, winning five and drawing two. They’ve been free-scoring too, with 16 goals in seven games and just five conceded.
Their front three, Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo have each got off to a flying start in the 2024/25 campaign, scoring 11 goals between them. They’ll need to be clinical in front of goal against Atletico’s miserly backline. Unfortunately, a thigh injury means Mbappe will miss this weekend’s derby, handing a possible start to 18-year-old Brazilian sensation Endrick.
The probable lineup for Atletico Madrid in 5-3-2:
Oblak; Molina, Lino, Azpilicueta, Mandava, Witsel, Llorente, Gallagher, Koke, Sorloth, Alvarez
The probable lineup for Real Madrid in 4-3-3:
Courtois; Vazquez, Mendy, Rudiger, Militao, Modric, Tchouameni, Bellingham, Rodrygo, Endrick, Vinicius Junior
Atletico Madrid have only lost once in their last six home meetings with Real Madrid in the league. Their most recent home La Liga game culminated in a 3-1 victory over Real.
Given that they’re averaging just 0.5 goals conceded per game and their home supporters will be highly motivated against their city rivals, we can see real value in backing the draw this weekend.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Tip 1: Match Drawn @ 3.50 with Parimatch
Looking at historical data between the two teams, Atleti have been the first team to score in five of their last six meetings. That’s why we particularly like Parimatch’s odd against price on the hosts breaking the deadlock.
The power and guile of Sorloth and Alvarez has the potential to trouble a Real backline that’s been rarely tested so far this season. Civitas Metropolitano can be an intimidating environment for any side, let alone their nearest rivals, so we anticipate Atleti opening the scoring and making Real work for a result.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Tip 2: 1st Goal (Atletico Madrid) @ 2.05 with Parimatch
Given that Atletico have conceded just three goals and Real have conceded only five goals so far this season, it’s clear that both defences are working well.
Four of the last seven meetings between the two sides at Civitas Metropolitano finished with two or less goals scored. The absence of Mbappe due to a thigh injury sustained against Alaves also removes Real’s number-one weapon.
That’s why we’re happy to back Under 2.5 Goals here at odds against, with Simeone’s men likely to play a deeper line to stifle Real’s speed merchants in the final third.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Tip 3: Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 with Parimatch