This is one of quite a few Champions League ties still hanging in the balance ahead of the second legs.
There’s more at stake than just local bragging rights here, with Real leading 2-1 after last week’s first leg. The two sides are also competing for the La Liga title, which adds to their rivalry.
Atletico fell to a surprise defeat against Getafe at the weekend, as they missed the chance to hit the La Liga summit. This marked their second defeat in a row by a 2-1 scoreline, leaving them with just two wins from their last seven games in all competitions.
Real Madrid were involved in a 2-1 game at the weekend, but they were on the right side of the scoreline as they overcame Rayo Vallecano. That was their fifth win in six games, so Real gained momentum at the right time.
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Atletico Madrid Expected Lineup: Oblak, Llorente, Gimenez, Lenglet, Galan, Lino, Barrios, De Paul, Simeone, Alvarez, Griezmann
Real Madrid Expected Lineup: Courtois, Valverde, Asencio, Rudiger, Mendy, Camavinga, Tchouameni, Diaz, Rodrygo, Mbappe, Vinicius
With a 2-1 aggregate lead, all Real need to do to advance is avoid defeat.
They have dominated this competition over the years, and the current holders haven’t won their last six Champions League games.
Although they are expected to dominate possession here, Real often find a way in this competition.
The pair are well accustomed to facing each other, and they have already played out two 1-1 draws in La Liga this season.
Seven of the last nine head-to-heads have also ended level after 90 minutes.
With Atletico compelled to push for a win, and Real happy to defend their advantage, these two could well cancel each other out once again.
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There are usually goals at both ends when these two sides face off, with both teams scoring in the last 10 head-to-heads.
Five of Real Madrid’s last six Champions League games saw goals at both ends, as did their last three across all competitions.
In the Champions League, six of Atletico’s last seven games saw both teams score. Their last six at home in this competition saw both teams on target.
The style of play also suggests a strong chance of goals.
Atletico have to push forward and attack, which leaves spaces for Real to potentially exploit with their pace.
Atletico have made fast starts in the last two Madrid derbies, opening the scoring in the first half on both occasions.
Early goals have been a common feature in their Champions League games as well. Atletico have scored before half-time in seven of their nine games in this season’s competition.
Their 11 first-half goals in this season’s Champions League are only surpassed by two other sides.
Of the teams left in the last 16, only Feyenoord (7) have conceded more than Real’s five goals in the 15 minutes leading up to the break.
Real can be susceptible before the break too, having conceded before half-time in their last three games.
Atletico need to score here to overturn their aggregate deficit, which is likely to drive them to aim for a fast start.