Yet, in the newly expanded 36-team competition, the prestige of European football comes with a gruelling schedule that challenges the depth and resilience of any squad.
Unai Emery’s side faces the demanding task of balancing Premier League aspirations with testing midweek European fixtures.
Signs of strain are beginning to emerge, raising questions about whether competing at the highest level hinders their ambition of securing a top-six finish in England’s top flight.
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In their Premier League campaign, Villa have collected a meagre five points (one win, two draws, one defeat) following their four Champions League matches. This is the poorest record among the five lowest-ranked teams in the Champions League this year.
Their current Premier League form after European nights is a far cry from last season’s exploits in the UEFA Conference League.
Back then, Emery’s side managed seven wins and four draws post-European fixtures, securing 25 points out of a possible 42.
The drop to an average of 1.25 points per game this season, from 1.78 last year, highlights their difficulty in managing the higher demands.
The inconsistency extends beyond the Champions League, with Villa failing to win in both their matches played after League Cup ties this season.
This contrasts sharply with their performance in the 2023/2024 season, where they were the most profitable team in the Premier League’s 1X2 betting market, achieving a 41.9% return on investment.
Aston Villa’s current six-game winless streak has matched their worst negative run under Emery, and their offensive efficacy has taken a notable hit.
Last season, Villa capitalised on scoring opportunities, exceeding their expected goals (xG) by 8.58, the highest margin in the league.
But the goals have dried up this season with Villa scoring just 19 times in the league — 10 fewer than they had at this stage last season.
Ollie Watkins, the team’s leading striker, continues to find the net with a scoring average of 0.50 per game, although this marks a slight decline from 0.57 last year.
The summer departure of Moussa Diaby, who provided a creative spark, has left a noticeable void.
Coupled with Leon Bailey’s reduced goal involvement and a pronounced reliance on Morgan Rogers, Villa’s missed chances (28 big ones, second only to Liverpool) are costing them crucial points.
This Sunday’s trip to Chelsea follows a midweek clash against Juventus, and December’s Nottingham Forest game will follow an equally tough fixture at RB Leipzig.
January 2025 will see pivotal Champions League matches against Monaco and Celtic, where Emery is unlikely to rest key players, given the potential repercussions of a top-8 finish.
In fact, should Villa fail to secure automatic qualification for the Champions League Round of 16, February could become particularly taxing with the possibility of a two-leg play-off.
This scenario could not only impact their league form but also place pressure on their FA Cup ambitions.
With Villa currently projected to finish eighth with 59 points by our in-house model, their prospects of a top-six finish that would secure European football next season appear uncertain.
They face intense competition from Brighton, Nottingham Forest, and an ascending Newcastle. Although our model suggests a 33.8% chance of breaking into the top six, the current odds, implying a 38% probability, do not present a favourable option for bettors.